When candidates beat pollsters’ expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.
Articles on Polling
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In recent years, voters have shifted their views on issues based upon the positions of politicians – even when that shift clashes with their ideology.
The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.
Since President Donald Trump took office, Iranians have held a more unfavorable view of the US.
The very first scientific horse race poll, which took place 85 years ago, was shrouded in secrecy and may have changed history – even though it was faulty.
Ever wondered why there are always so many people in the undecided column in an election poll?
Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
The annual Scanlon Foundation survey found nearly half those aged 18-24 viewed climate change as the biggest problem facing Australia, compared to 12% of those aged 35-44 and 8% of those aged over 75.
Things could have been quite different if Jeremy Corbyn swung more decisively to Remain or if Jo Swinson hadn’t been in such a rush to the polls.
Study shows voters struggle to take media bias into account – even when they are explicitely told it’s there.
Voters are primarily partisans, and they respond to party signals – even when they claim otherwise.
Division among the opposition parties continues to play into Boris Johnson’s hands.
Based on current trends, the UK could be heading for a hung parliament.
Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate’s views.
According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.
Approval ratings are usually a good way to predict the winner of the next presidential election. But Trump’s numbers fall far outside any historical trends.
You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
How did the numbers of election 2019 fall across the country? And what seats are still in play?
Americans’ votes in 2020 will likely be a statement on what they think of Trump – rather than a measured choice between him and the Democratic candidate.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond