As Jeb Bush, the 11th declared Republican candidate enters the race for president, a look back at a secretive survey in 1935 that foreshadowed today’s ubiquitous horserace polls.
Articles on Polling
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‘Shy Tories’ doesn’t cut it. There is another anomaly in the election poll data which offers a more useful angle on what went wrong.
Did anyone tell you this was the “most unpredictable election in years”? There’s a reason for that.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Polling is a central part of any election these days. If only it weren’t such a complicated business.
In the tightest electoral contest in decades, the undecided vote could swing it.
UKIP demands a referendum, the Conservatives promise one — but what does the public think?
Pollsters don’t aim to predict the results, but that doesn’t stop the media trying. Maybe they should ask William Hill who will win instead.
The SNP has changed the way Scottish people think about politics, something no party has achieved for decades.
Recent polls have put Labour and the Conservatives in what seems to be an unshakable dead heat. The latest Ashcroft poll puts them both on 33%. This takes the parties back to exactly where they were in…
While Conservative pundits wonder why high scores for economic competence aren’t boosting poll numbers, some clues might lie away from financial measures.
Nick Clegg is in the fight of his political life – and his battleground constituency was once one of the safest seats in the UK.
With parliament closed, the election campaign is now in full swing and it looks increasingly unlikely that either will win outright. A recent meeting of election forecasters concluded that the UK is heading…
Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.
We are likely to see an early second election following the general election in May.
The contest for 28 marginal seats could give a strong indication of the overall result in May.
Give voters a wider choice and you’ll see more of them exercising it.
If most commentators are right, the 2015 general election is likely to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting polls of the post-war period. The dramatic rise in support for UKIP in England, the…
Behavioral scientists have seized on social media and their massive data sets as a way to quickly and cheaply figure out what people are thinking and doing. But some of those tweets and thumbs ups can…
There is a wobble going on in the Labour party over Ed Miliband’s leadership. A number of Labour backbenchers are said to be becoming increasingly nervous about retaining their seats in next year’s general…
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond