With a history of presidential polls getting it wrong − sometimes very wrong − how did this year’s polling fare? Some US pollsters did better, but a Brazilian pollster did the best.
Articles on Polling
Displaying 21 - 40 of 201 articles
Now that almost all votes have been counted it’s clear how close this race really was.
The vagaries of polling – and, most of all, the vagaries of the US electoral system – mean there is little point attempting to read the tea leaves beyond the broad public sentiment polling captures.
What a century of US presidential elections tells us about the impact of the economy on voting.
Hold your breath and make sure you vote, because the result is likely to be a squeaker.
The New York Times, dismayed by wayward polls in the 1952 presidential race, sent teams of reporters across the country to assess public opinion in the 1956 campaign. Its effort was no rousing success.
Polls help set the public’s expectations in a presidential race. In 2020, presidential polls overall were the worst in 40 years. No misfire was more striking than CNN’s. Will CNN do better in 2024?
Sexism played a key role in Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s defeat − and Donald Trump’s victory − in 2016. Has America become more accepting of a woman leader? Not exactly.
We had more MRP polls than ever before in 2024 but accuracy varied greatly between producers.
Data from Ukip’s performance in 2017 shows that once a certain tipping point is passed, Reform is indeed a significant threat to the Tories.
These so-called ‘mega polls’ all give Labour massive majorities – but all of different sizes. What’s going on?
Does a poll lead increase your poll lead? The science of bandwagon effects explained.
The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
A look back at how much the dial has shifted during the short, official campaign period in elections since 1945.
With the UK heading for an election on July 4, it can feel like the result is pre-ordained. Labour has maintained a decisive poll lead for over a year and nothing Rishi Sunak does appears to shift the…
Hispanic and Latino voters have tended to vote Democrat in previous US presidential elections.
New polling shows a significant drop in support for January 26 in just two years.
Numbers of Muslim and Jewish voters in the US, are small, compared to the rest of the population, so their voting patterns are unlikely to change the 2024 election result.
A survey released by the Australian National University has reinforced that October’s referendum might have passed if it had been confined to constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians.
Despite the best of intentions, the prime minister’s determination to take Australians to a referendum on the Voice to Parliament has caused tremendous damage.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond