Democrats’ surprise at the results of the 2024 presidential election is partly a result of pollsters’ inaccuracies and partly of partisan filter bubbles.
Articles on Polling methodology
Displaying 1 - 20 of 21 articles
The vagaries of polling – and, most of all, the vagaries of the US electoral system – mean there is little point attempting to read the tea leaves beyond the broad public sentiment polling captures.
Modern survey research does face challenges from changes in technology and in how people live their increasingly busy lives.
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
The Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory – and so it proved to be.
Most surveys are consistent in finding there is a substantial minority of the view that immigration is too high, but not a large majority.
The exit poll published at 10pm suggests the Conservatives could fall short of a parliamentary majority. Is it to be believed?
Polling is difficult – and everyone except pollsters overestimates how accurate polls are.
Pollsters must be as accurate as possible. How will they address the challenges revealed in the 2016 election, and other changes in the coming years?
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
Survey findings are typically considered in isolation in the media, with no understanding of context, of what is within and what is beyond the expected.
The polling industry struggled to predict the last British election, and referendums are even harder.
New survey information puts paid to ‘shy Tories’ theory.
Did anyone tell you this was the “most unpredictable election in years”? There’s a reason for that.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Polling is a central part of any election these days. If only it weren’t such a complicated business.
Recent polls have put Labour and the Conservatives in what seems to be an unshakable dead heat. The latest Ashcroft poll puts them both on 33%. This takes the parties back to exactly where they were in…
Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.
Tuesday, November 6 was a game changer. The Republican Party in the United States has come to understand that the political environment has been altered. White males can no longer dictate the results of…
Top contributors
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Director of the Elon University Poll, Elon University
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University of Newcastle
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Research Methodology, Director of National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan University
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Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University
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Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, Cairns Institute, James Cook University
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Professor of Human Social Dynamics, Santa Fe Institute; External Faculty, Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Associate Researcher, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam
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Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania