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Articles on Polling
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The pollsters have had another bad year – and it may be because they were so worried about repeating the mistakes of 2015.
Hitting a moving target is hard, and young people don’t always do what’s expected.
The exit poll published at 10pm suggests the Conservatives could fall short of a parliamentary majority. Is it to be believed?
If the 2017 polls are to get the election right, they have to nail one variable in particular: turnout among the young.
With just a week until the vote, the polling agency has thrown a cat among the pigeons. Here’s how to understand the poll everyone is talking about.
Polling is difficult – and everyone except pollsters overestimates how accurate polls are.
The White House is deciding whether or not to stay in the Paris climate agreement. But a large majority of Americans – including Trump voters – want the U.S. to participate and lead.
Are we relying too much on interviews with voters instead of polling?
They were way off in 2015 and for the forthcoming election in June it’s worth knowing why.
Is Trump up or down? Will the public vote yes or no? Who will win the election? A mathematician’s guide to understanding polls in the media.
A unique poll from Penn State’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy tracks how the nation is feeling.
Data since 1950s show Americans have always been wary of refugees. A public opinion expert explains current attitudes toward Syrian refugees and what it means for building consensus on policy.
Neither Galaxy Research nor the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank discussed the most interesting data they garnered from polling on free speech and reform to Section 18C.
It’s human nature to notice or search out information that supports what you already believe and discount or avoid data to the contrary. The problem comes in when you don’t recognize this bias is in play.
Pollsters must be as accurate as possible. How will they address the challenges revealed in the 2016 election, and other changes in the coming years?
The polls convinced many that Clinton was headed to the White House. But the polls were misleading – and one behavioral scientist thinks emotion led respondents to mislead pollsters on purpose.
From undetected late swings, to pollster ‘herding’.
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond