People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
Articles on Polling
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With the next federal election possible as soon as August 2021, the need for reform of polling standards in Australia is urgent.
Pollster Bud Roper once said of his field that “a good deal more than half is art and … less than half is science.” After the 2020 polls got a lot wrong, is it time for more candor from pollsters?
What the polls and the candidates keep getting wrong about the United States’ largest minority group.
Polls predicted a ‘blue wave’ that didn’t materialize.
An expert on the history of polling has a first take on how pollsters did this year.
Punters are more cautious than the polls, suggesting this election might be closer than the media is reporting.
Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
A new poll from The Australia Institute shows 71% of Aussies want the country to be a global leader in climate action. Yet Australia lags behind the rest of the world.
Forget what the betting markets say. Research on past elections points to momentum carrying Joe Biden to a big victory over Donald Trump.
Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
The polls are predicting a comfortable win for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. But if this election sees the same polling errors as in 2016, Trump’s chances of re-election are higher than we think.
Donald Trump’s ‘rally round the flag’ effect was fleeting, and is unlikely to re-emerge.
Donald Trump’s job approval ratings may be holding, but consumer confidence matters for his re-election prospects.
Nearly three-quarters of fans say they won’t attend games until a vaccine has been developed.
Researchers and public health officials still don’t know how widespread nor how deadly the coronavirus really is. Random testing is a way to quickly and easily learn this important information.
Respondents wanted to look after older generations more than they wanted to focus on post-crisis growth.
Polls have become an essential component of the news coverage of presidential campaigns. That may affect who voters decide to back on an election day.
In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Honorary Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Centre for Global Security, and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Communication; Director CAJ, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond