Wisconsin proved to be the ‘tipping point’ state in the US presidential election, which Joe Biden won by just 0.6% - despite being likely to win the popular vote by 4-5%.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
With a handful of states still to be declared, it looks likely Joe Biden will win the electoral college vote by 306 to 232, he same margin with which Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
There is no clear winner in the presidential race yet, but with many mail-in votes still to be counted, Joe Biden is favoured eventually to take the White House.
Most polls are pointing to a Biden win, but it will be the “swing states” where the vote is close that will hold the key to who takes the White House.
Annastasia Palaszczuk’s Labor Party has been returned to government for a third term, likely with a small majority.
Jacinda Ardern’s NZ Labour Party scores a resounding election win, while the ACT government is comfortably returned.
Newspoll showed most people approved of the Coalition’s budget, with 42% saying it would be good for the economy and 49% saying Labor wouldn’t have delivered a better alternative.
Joe Biden has stretched his lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House, while the Queensland Labor Party leads in polling ahead of the October 31 state election.
The Coalition government has seen a bounce in its primary vote. Meanwhile, polls continue to point to a victory for Joe Biden in the US, but there is still a long way to go until November 3.
Labor had its best results in the Newspoll since late April, perhaps reflecting how people view Morrison’s handling of the aged care-coronavirus debacle.
With several seats still in doubt, Michael Gunner looks likely to be returned as chief minister, while Newspoll has the Coalition pulling ahead in the Queensland race.
Scott Morrison continues to have a good pandemic, at least according to the polls, while the gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the US narrows, with Biden maintaining a significant lead.
Voters appear to be holding state premiers responsible for coronavirus case surges, rather than the federal government.
Labor’s Kristy McBain is leading in the closely-watched byelection for the marginal NSW seat.
Morrison’s approval rating was at 68% in the latest Newspoll, while 27% of respondents were dissatisfied. His soaring popularity, though, hasn’t boosted the Coalition as much as would be expected.
Scott Morrison’s popularity has bounced during the coronavirus pandemic, but that is still not translating to two-party preferred results. Meanwhile, Joe Biden pulls ahead in the US election race.
The prime minister’s approval ratings and the two-party preferred vote come closer to alignment, while Donald Trump still faces an uphill battle in November if economic doldrums continue.
An “outlier” poll suggests most people approve of the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, but remain distrustful of the government’s performance more broadly.
Nearly two-thirds of people (61%) were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance as prime minister, up a massive 20 points from the last Newspoll.
Usually a major crisis benefits incumbent leaders. But that has not been the case for Donald Trump – and his chances of re-election in November now look shaky.
While the momentum had been with Bernie Sanders, the former vice president surged on Super Tuesday, and is favourite to win the Democratic nomination.
Sanders has cemented his status as front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination ahead of Super Tuesday, even with Michael Bloomberg’s entrance to the race.
The Democratic nomination is still very much up for grabs, with Bernie Sanders having a narrow win in New Hampshire.
Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders take the lead in Iowa after a debacle with the results reporting - now the candidates move on to New Hampshire, where Sanders is the favourite.
Polls are showing Bernie Sanders leading in next week’s important Iowa caucuses- but polls have been notoriously bad at predicting caucuses’ outcomes.
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