While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
If Labor could harness the uni-educated urban vote in Australia the way the Liberals have in Canada, they would more easily win federal elections.
An error-riddled first week of the campaign saw the Labor leader’s personal stocks fall, but Labor maintains and election-winning lead over the Coalition.
Labor’s two-party preferred vote drops for the second time running, a concerning sign at the start of an election campaign.
Elections are won and lost in marginal seats - in 2022, there are several key ones to watch.
At the 2019 election, the polls got it seriously wrong. State polls and election results suggest this may have been corrected, but it’s by no means certain.
A slew of polls show only a modest lift for the government after the budget, and Labor favoured to win the election.
Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.
Latest seat polling shows a mixed bag for Labor and the Coalition – but seat polling has proved unreliable in the past.
On this occasion, the polls were right, with South Australians unequivocally electing Peter Malinauskas’ Labor Party as their next government.
The SA election will be held on the weekend, and polls are pointing towards a Labor win and Peter Malinauskas becoming the next premier.
With two months until a federal election, Labor maintains a big lead in the latest Newspoll, with the opposition leader gaining ground as preferred prime minister.
Latest results show Labor ahead of the Coalition federally as well as in South Australia, Queensland and possibly NSW.
Some of the Coalition’s fall in both Essential and Resolve polls appears to be going to other right-wing parties, which may be boosted by vaccine scepticism.
A new poll shows a 3% drop in the Greens’ primary vote, while another has Josh Frydenberg ahead of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton as preferred Liberal leader.
Labor had a win in Bega and held Strathfield, while the Nationals held Monaro while the Liberals may hold off an independent challenger in Willoughby.
NSW will conduct four byelections this weekend, while the Essential poll has better news for the Coalition.
Latest polling shows a dramatic slump in voters’ views of the Morrison government, and with an election likely in May, the question now is whether that will change in the coming months.
It’s the first time since Resolve began doing its monthly surveys last April that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition on primary votes.
The latest Newspoll puts Labor ahead, 53 to 47, but other surveys suggest the two party race is tighter.
The Andrews government’s difficulty in passing its pandemic bill highlights the need for electoral reform it should have embraced years ago.
The prime minister’s approval ratings have suffered a slump in recent weeks - but at this stage that does not mean anything for next year’s election.
It appears from recent polling that the more the deputy prime minister is in the spotlight, the worse the Coalition will perform.
Newspoll continues to show Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, but other polls, and the end of lockdowns on the east coast, may paint a different picture in the coming weeks.
Labor continues to show a strong lead in Newspoll, but Resolve shows a markedly different situation, and much may change before the next election.
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