Weak economic data and sluggish wages have contributed to the Coalition’s poor showing in the latest Newspoll, which gives Labor a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Despite a week of heated debate over the medevac legilation, the latest polls continue to show Labor with an election-winning lead.
It is often thought that the Tampa incident won John Howard the 2001 election, but an analysis of polling from the time shows the September 11 attacks had a far bigger impact on voting intentions.
A Queensland Galaxy poll taken at the same time shows a healthier lead for Labor - but more polls are needed to determine any trends in voting ahead of the federal election.
The latest polls show Labor holding a solid lead over the Coalition, while seat polls show that Tony Abbott may struggle to retain his Sydney seat.
While the latest Newspoll gave the Morrison govenrment a welcome boost, it will need to avoid the “February slump”.
As the US shutdown continues, voters seem to be increasingly blaming the president for the impasse; meanwhile, a “no-deal” Brexit looms.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos and Essential polls give a strong lead to Labor, with some interesting – and variable - detail on the attributes voters see in the leaders of the two major parties.
The final results post-election Victorian upper house are not a ringing endorsement for democracy - and provide a strong case for reform.
Formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats such as Hawthorn and Nepean have fallen to Labor in the wash-up of Labor’s thumping state election win.
Meanwhile, Labor’s strong win means it will unlikely have an incentive for desperately-needed upper house reform.
With counting still underway, the projected primary votes are 44.1% Labor (up 6.0% since the 2014 election), 34.8% Coalition (down 7.2%) and 10.4% Greens (down 1.1%).
The government will take heart from the latest polls showing a bounce in their support, while the micro parties are likely to take seats in the Victorian election.
Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said “you can’t reflect society if 90% of your members of parliament were chosen from trade unions and worked in trade unions”. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
And for the first time since the 1999 republic referendum, those opposed to a republic outnumber those in favour of it.
The highly-anticipated US mid-terms produced mixed results for both major parties – Democrats won the House but Republicans strengthened their hold on the Senate.
In the aftermath of the Wentworth byelection, the Coalition government has suffered another set-back in the polls.
After election night reports of a thumping win in by independent Kerryn Phelps, the Liberals have recovered significantly in postal votes - so much so, the result is now uncertain.A
The latest polls are a mixed bag for the Morrison government: there were gains in primary and two-party preferred vote, but the polls still have Labor in an election-winning position.
A change of heart on preferences appears to have cost the high-profile independent in Wentworth, while the controversy around Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been of benefit to Donald Trump.
The Coalition’s recent hit in the polls seems to be subsiding, while Kerryn Phelps may have made a damaging error by announcing she’ll preference the Liberals in the Wentworth byelection.
Fairfax Ipsos gives Labor another win on two-party preferred, albeit with weird primary vote numbers, while the Labor party in Victoria has another poll win just over two months ahead of the state election.
Another poor showing in the polls for the government, with analysis showing the Coalition most likely to lose support at the next election among the well-educated, the young and in Victoria.
Australians have never liked sitting PMs being deposed by their own parties - but the outrage over Malcolm Turnbull’s destruction is the greatest in modern history.
Analysis of the polls shows the deposing of Malcolm Turnbull made absolutely no electoral sense.
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