Morrison suffered a drop in his job performance rating, with 37% saying they were satisfied, down eight points from early December, and 59% saying they were dissatisfied, up 11 points.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The election means Britain will Leave the European Union by January 31 under Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, which was blocked by the previous parliament.
The Indiana mayor has enjoyed a huge leap in support in a recent Iowa poll, but whteher that will translate across the country is far less certain.
The president’s support among non-college educated whites remains strong, and the only thing likely to shift that is a weakened economy.
Meanwhile, the polls indicated that support for impeachment has shifted markedly, with most Americans now supporting it.
Joe Biden continues to front the Democratic primaries race and leads Donald Trump by eight points. But it’s not likely the latest impeachment controversy will damage Trump’s ratings.
US President Donald Trump is in an unenviable position as the race towards the 2020 presidential election heats up. Meanwhile, the UK’s attempts to Brexit continue to be untidy.
Despite a drop in support after the first Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden’s perceived electiability is serving him well in the race to secure his party’s nomination.
Joe Biden remains the favourite in the Democratic race - but there are question marks over whether he can beat Donald Trump.
Notionally, Labor will need a 0.6% swing to win the next election. But the details make it much more complicated - and difficult.
According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.
After strong results in the 2019 election, the Coalition is likely to have 35 of the 76 seats when the Senate next sits.
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
This result, which is vastly different from what opinion polls were indicating, shows the probability of “herding” in polls, and also emphasises that betting odds are to be treated with great caution.
After five long weeks, the campaign is drawing to a close, with the polls still pointing to a narrow Labor win, with lots of unknowns in the detail.
The polls are pointing to a narrow Labor victory on May 18, but there is still much in play.
With the higher quota at a half-Senate election, parties probably need at least 5% of the vote to be in contention for a seat at this election.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
The latest Newspoll shows a further tightening on two-party preferred, but was making some strange assumptions about the slow of preferences.
Seat polls are notoriously unreliable, and the support shown for the United Australia Party in recent polls is likely to be overstated.
Neither party got a bump from the official start of the federal election campaign, with Labor retaining its 52-48 advantage in the latest Newspoll.
While the budget appealed to the Coalition’s perceived strength on overall economic management, wage growth and climate change are likely to be important during the election campaign.
Scott Morrison has announced the Liberals will preference One Nation below Labor at the federal election. But that is unlikely to make a substantial difference to the make-up of the parliament.
The Berejiklian government has been returned to power, with Labor having a poorer-than-expected showing following a disastrous final week of campaigning.
Recent polling indicates that no one party will be able to win a majority government in the upcoming NSW election, with Labor needing to gain six seats to deprive the Coalition from a victory.
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