While this Newspoll is Malcolm Turnbull’s 26th consecutive loss (four short of Tony Abbott’s streak), it is the Coalition’s best position since April 2017.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
As the fallout from the dual citizenship saga continues, the Greens and Labor are set to fight a close contest in Batman, while Nick Xenophon has work to do ahead of the South Australian election.
The polls are leaning towards the Liberals holding power in Tasmania, but the unpopularity of the federal Coalition government could help Labor get over the line.
The strong US economy has improved Donald Trump’s ratings in the last month.
In both Australian and overseas elections held in 2017, the left generally performed better than expected.
If the primary votes in Newspoll were replicated at the South Australian election, SA-BEST would probably win a clear majority of lower house seats.
The easy win for John Alexander in the Bennelong byelection restores the Coalition’s two-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Doug Jones has won a tough battle to represent Alabama in the US Senate; meanwhile, the crucial byelection in Bennelong is neck-and-neck, with huge implications for the government if it loses.
With 45 seats held by parties other than Labor, Labor has won a three-seat majority in Queensland.
Unlike Tony Windsor in 2016, none of Barnaby Joyce’s New England byelection opponents had the resources to run a strong campaign.
Labor looks set to win the Queensland election with a bare majority. And while same-sex marriage has passed the Senate, the strong support in regional areas has surprised some commentators.
Labor is still shy of the 47 seats it needs to form government in Queensland, but it is best placed to do so in the coming days.
With the results now hours away, much attention will also be on the performance of One Nation.
If the predicted strong preferences from One Nation to the LNP occur at the Queensland election, it would be bad news not just for state Labor, but also federal Labor.
The polls are showing a close contest in the Bennelong byelection between the Liberals’ John Alexander and Labor’s Kristina Keneally.
The results of the same-sex marriage survey confirm what previous polling had shown, but western Sydney surprised with a strong ‘no’ vote.
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 9-12 November from a sample of 1630, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one point gain for Labor since last fortnight, and their largest Newspoll lead since February. Primary votes…
Liberal John Alexander today resigned as the Member for Bennelong, owing to concerns he had British citizenship by descent through his father. As Barnaby Joyce has also been ousted pending a 2 December…
A US Senate by-election will be held in Alabama on 12 December, caused by the resignation of Republican Senator Jeff Sessions to become Trump’s Attorney-General. Luther Strange, an establishment Republican…
Gubernatorial elections were held in Virginia and New Jersey today. In Virginia, there is a one-term limit for governors, so incumbent Democrat governor Terry McAuliffe was unable to seek re-election…
A Queensland Galaxy poll, conducted probably on 1-2 November from a sample of 900, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one point gain for Labor since an early August Galaxy. Primary votes were 35% Labor (steady…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 26-29 October from a sample of 1620, gave Labor its third successive 54-46 lead. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady since last fortnight), 35% Coalition (down 1), 10…
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk today called the state election for 25 November, about two months before the three-year anniversary of Labor’s shock win in January 2015. There will be 93 single-member…
In July and August, six Senators and Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce were referred to the High Court as they may have been ineligible to stand for election or sit in Parliament. These cases were all considered…
The New Zealand election was held on 23 September, with final results released on 7 October. The conservative National won 56 of the 120 seats, Labour 46, the anti-immigrant populist NZ First 9, the Greens…
Contact Adrian for
- General
- Media request
- Speaking request
- Consulting / Advising
- Research collaboration
- Research supervision
- Website
- Article Feed
-
- Joined
