The ABC’s Senate calculator currently shows the Sex Party winning the final Senate seat in Tasmania. However, the ABC’s calculator treats all Senate votes as above the line ticket votes, though in Tasmania…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The results are in. At yesterday’s federal election, the combined Liberal-National Coalition vote was 45.3% to Labor’s 33.8% in the lower house. This was a primary vote swing to the Coalition of 1.6% and…
Projected Winner: the Coalition The table below has the usual poll, two party result, change from last issue, fieldwork dates and sample size. Newspoll has not made a major election error with its final…
This Week’s Polls As usual, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from that poll’s last issue, fieldwork dates and sample size. The two party figures in the above table obscure the increase…
At the 2010 election, 84% of votes were either ordinary or pre-poll votes cast within a voter’s electorate; these votes are counted on election night. The remaining votes are postal votes, pre-poll votes…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from last issue, fieldwork dates and sample size. Newspoll and Morgan both decreased their sample sizes to their usual…
Morgan’s latest poll from last weekend had a sample of over 4,500. Under the previous election’s preferences, the two party result was 52-48 to the Coalition; this was very much in line with the consensus…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and sample size. Note the increased sample sizes in Newspoll and Morgan…
Betting Markets Are betting markets really a good way to predict the result of an election? In most Federal elections, they have got the result right, but an exception was 1993, when Keating won what seemed…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from the last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and approximate sample size. Other than Monday’s Essential sample…
These issues are actually not specific to Queensland, but they apply most to Queensland at this election. The Sophomore Surge Effect At the 2010 election, Labor lost seven Queensland seats to the Coalition…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, that poll’s two party result, change from the last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and sample size. The vast majority of interviews would…
Follow the PM’s Approval Rating, not the Preferred PM If the election is competitive, the Preferred PM measure will invariably show the incumbent with a big lead over the opposition leader. The opposition…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below will show the poll’s two party result, shift from the last release of that poll, fieldwork dates and approximate sample size (click to enlarge). While Essential’s…
What affects a Poll’s Margin of Error? There are two things that affect the margin of error (MOE). They are the poll’s sample size (n) and the estimated or assumed proportion (p); the estimated proportion…
Introduction I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian…
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