The Canadian election will be held tomorrow, with polls closing on Tuesday morning and afternoon Melbourne time. The current Canadian Broadcasting Corp (CBC) poll tracker has the centre left Liberals leading…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
It is now one month since Turnbull deposed Abbott as PM. Initial polls showed a big bounce for the Coalition as they regained the poll lead for the first time since late 2013. However, this week’s Essential…
The Canadian election will be held on Monday 19 October, and results will be known during the afternoon of Tuesday 20 October Melbourne time. This election is of some interest to Australians because Canada’s…
The table below shows the results of the five polls that have been conducted since Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Australia’s PM. Three of these polls have Coalition leads and the other two are…
The Canning by-election was held yesterday. With counting final for election night, the Liberals’ Andrew Hastie has won by 55.0-45.0, a 6.9% swing to Labor. Primary votes were 46.4% for Hastie (down 4.7…
Last night Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott in a Liberal leadership spill, 54 votes to 44. As a result, Turnbull replaces Abbott as Australia’s Prime Minister. I analysed the polling effect of past…
The Canning by-election will be held next Saturday 19 September. Two polls have been released this week. A Galaxy robopoll of 557 respondents, conducted last Thursday night, gives the Liberals a 52-48…
The last two weeks have been marked by the Border Force fiasco in Melbourne, Dyson Heydon’s decision to continue as Trade Union Royal Commissioner, a weak economic growth report, and a continuing refugee…
There are some interesting international electoral events happening now. On 12 September, the UK Labour party will announce its new leader, and the most left wing candidate, Jeremy Corbyn, is expected…
Dyson Heydon, the Trade Union Royal Commissioner, has been in the political spotlight in the last week over claims that there is a reasonable apprehension of bias, and that he should resign as Commissioner…
Following the death in late July of WA Liberal MP Don Randall, a by-election was ordered in his seat of Canning on the 19 September. A Newspoll has the Liberals just ahead by 51-49, representing an 11…
Both major parties have had members involved in expenses scandals over the last week. Although these scandals would usually result in a “pox on both your houses” effect, this time Labor has been the clear…
The highlights of the last two weeks have been the Labor national conference, and more revelations of Bronwyn Bishop’s expenditures, culminating in her resignation as Federal Speaker last Sunday. All polls…
The last two weeks have featured Bill Shorten’s appearance at the Trade Union Royal Commission (TURC), the government instructing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) not to invest in wind power…
This week we had three polls from Ipsos, Newspoll and Essential. Newspoll is not the old Newspoll, which was conducted by landline telephone interviews. The new Newspoll is conducted by a mixture of robopolling…
The last fortnight has featured The Killing Season and Q&A on the ABC, allegations against Shorten from his union boss days, and a national security focus from the government. Media expectations were…
There have been four polls released this week. The Ipsos and Morgan polls both showed a substantial increase in the Labor vote share, but Newspoll and Essential have not supported this trend to Labor…
The three polls released this week all have Labor leading by 52-48, in line with the post budget polling. Here is the usual poll table. Morgan’s poll leans to Labor, but this lean has reduced in recent…
On voting intention, the 2015 budget has had a mild impact, but is a continuation of a slow trend to the Coalition. The table below gives the two party results for all six polls conducted since the budget…
In a huge shock, the Tories have won an outright majority of the UK House of Commons seats. With all 650 seats officially declared, the Tories have won 331 seats, a gain of 22 on the 2010 results. Labour…
This week’s Newspoll had Abbott’s satisfied rating up 4% to 37% and his dissatisfied rating down 3% to 56%, for a net approval of -19. It is the fifth consecutive Newspoll to show an improvement in Abbott’s…
The United Kingdom election will be held in five days on Thursday. The current UK Polling Report (UKPR) poll average has the Tories on 34%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) on 9%, the UK…
The United Kingdom election will be held in 11 days on the 7 May. You can read my preview from two weeks ago here. Since that preview was written, little has changed with the overall polling picture. The…
The Animal Justice Party (AJP) has won the final New South Wales upper house seat, defeating No Land Tax (NLT) and the Coalition. The final count had the Coalition winning 9.375 quotas, Labor 6.84, Greens…
On Monday we had two polls from Ipsos and Newspoll that gave contradictory results. Previously Ipsos has been a Coalition-leaning pollster, so Labor’s 54-46 lead in this poll was a big surprise. However…
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