Over the Christmas/New Year period, The Australian has released Newspolls for NSW, Queensland, SA and WA. Elections are due early this year in both NSW and Queensland, so these surveys are of the most…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
At the Victorian election held on the 29 November, Labor won a comfortable majority in the lower house. However, it was a different story in the upper house. The Coalition won 16 of the 40 seats, down…
In the last two weeks we have had polls from Galaxy, Ipsos, Newspoll, Morgan and Essential. All give Labor at least a 52-48 lead, with three higher. Here is my final poll table for 2014, which includes…
At the Victorian state election held on 29 November, Labor won 47 of the 88 lower house seats, a comfortable 6 seat majority. The Coalition won 38 seats (Liberals 30, Nationals 8), the Greens won 2 seats…
The Greens have won Prahran from the Liberals by 277 votes after beating Labor by 31 votes at the point where Labor or the Greens were excluded. In SA, the Liberals staged a dramatic recovery on pre-poll…
At the March 2014 South Australian election, Labor won 23 seats out of 47, to 22 Liberals and two Independents, despite losing the statewide Two Party Preferred (2PP) vote by a 53.0-47.0 margin. Shortly…
This week’s Newspoll had Tony Abbott’s satisfied rating down 3% to 33%, and his dissatisfied rating up 2% to 57%, for a net approval of -24, down five points from last fortnight. On all three measures…
With all election night votes counted, Labor has definitely won 44 of the 88 Victorian lower house seats, with the Coalition definitely winning 35 seats. The Nationals’ seat of Shepparton was lost to an…
The Victorian election will be held today, with polls closing at 6pm local time. The table below gives the final Victorian election polls by 2010 election preferences. Ipsos gave Labor a 52-48 lead as…
I mentioned Morgan and Galaxy polls in Saturday’s Victorian election preview. Morgan has published another SMS poll, this one taken from last Friday to Monday from a sample of 1170. The results show a…
The Victorian election will be held in just one week. While I have written about the Victorian election previously, I have yet to do a full preview post. This post includes some material from previous…
Two months ago, Newspoll only had Labor ahead by 51-49 from primary votes which suggested a 50-50 tie. That poll was taken after dramatic arrests in Sydney to stop an alleged terrorist incident. The last…
This week we had two major media polls, with the first Ipsos poll in the Fairfax papers and Newspoll in The Australian. Ipsos has Labor’s lead at only 51-49, but Newspoll has Labor leading by a wider 54-46…
At US midterm elections held today (Aus time), the Democrats have lost control of the Senate, lost seats in the House, and failed to defeat any of their top right-wing Republican gubernatorial targets…
The Victorian State election will be held in four weeks on 29 November 2014. The table below gives the results of Victorian polls that have been published in the last week. The columns are the polling…
Every four years a Presidential election is held in the United States. Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012, and the next Presidential election will be held in November 2016. However, the US also holds…
On Tuesday, Newspoll put Labor ahead by a 53-47 margin over the Coalition, a 2% swing to Labor from the previous Newspoll four weeks ago. Rounding in both these two Newspolls has been generous to Labor…
Last week we had state polling from Essential, Newspoll and Morgan for all states, with Morgan surprising by releasing SMS poll results for all states conducted from 26-29 September. In Victoria, Labor…
Last Thursday 18 September there was widespread media coverage of an alleged terrorist plot to behead Australian residents in Sydney. As a result, the Coalition has regained the ground lost last fortnight…
With all election night votes counted in yesterday’s New Zealand election, the centre right Nationals have won 48.1% of the vote, up 0.8% on the 2011 election. That meant they almost doubled Labour’s vote…
With all 32 councils reporting, Scotland has rejected independence by a decisive 55.3% to 44.7% margin. Only four of the 32 councils voted YES to independence. Although YES won two of the four most populous…
There have been seven Scottish referendum polls released in the last two days. All have NO leading by between 51-49 and 53-47, with five polls showing NO leads of 52-48. When we have many polls clustered…
In the next week there will be a referendum in Scotland to decide whether Scotland should become an independent country; polls currently show a very close race, with NO to independence slightly ahead…
Last fortnight two polls had the Coalition behind by only 51-49, the closest since prior to the May budget. This week Newspoll has Labor gaining ground. While Morgan had the Coalition gaining, his last…
Two of this week’s polls only have Labor leading by 51-49, the closest Labor lead any poll other than Essential has shown since before the budget speculation began in early May. Here is the usual poll…
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