Today the “Button” was pressed to distribute preferences for the Tasmanian Senate. On final primary votes, Labor had 4.37 quotas, the Liberals 4.23, the Greens 1.45, Jacqui Lambie 1.08 and One Nation 0.33…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
On current Senate results, the Coalition can expect to win 32 of 76 seats at most, which would be a one seat loss from the pre-election Senate. Although 32 Coalition seats are possible, the most likely…
A week after the election, postal votes in Queensland have continued to flow very strongly to the Coalition. As a result, they have now taken narrow leads in Flynn, where Labor had 51.6% Two Party Preferred…
In Queensland, Labor was ahead in 11 seats after election night, and the Coalition led in 18, representing a projected five seat gain for Labor vs the 2013 election. However, all projected Labor gains…
After counting into the early hours of Sunday morning, the Australian Electoral Commission currently has Labor leading in 72 of the 150 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 66.
The Federal election is today. Polls close at 6pm Melbourne time in the eastern states, 6:30pm in SA and the NT, and 8pm in WA. All final polls except Ipsos have the Coalition ahead. Here is the final…
The UK’s vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result…
Defying expectations of a solid Remain victory, the UK has voted to Leave the European Union by about a 52-48 margin. Remain won easily in Scotland, London and some other big cities, but otherwise Leave…
ReachTEL has taken six marginal seat polls for the NSW Teachers Federation. All polls were conducted on the 20 June, the day after Labor’s campaign launch, with samples of 600-650 per electorate. Labor…
The ReachTEL robopoll has followed last week’s strong Coalition result with another 52-48 to the Coalition by last election preferences. However, the other polls in the field last week and this week disagree…
This week’s ReachTEL was reported as showing a 50-50 tie, unchanged on last week. However, this was based on respondent allocated preferences, and the primary vote movements imply a 2 point gain for the…
Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475…
Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. What do the polls say?
This week’s ReachTEL and Newspoll have Others gaining, at Labor’s expense in ReachTEL and at the expense of all other parties in Newspoll. Ipsos was the exception this week, with Others unchanged on last…
This week’s polls are confusing, with Essential now having the Coalition ahead, while ReachTEL had Labor gaining, particularly on respondent allocated preferences. ReachTEL is a far more credible poll…
Phil Cleary, left-leaning one-time independent member for Wills, and Sophie Mirabella, the former Liberal MP for Indi who is trying to regain the seat, are far from political soulmates.
The polls taken after the budget had some movement to the Coalition. This week’s polls have that movement reversing. While the overall vote is showing about a 50-50 tie, this is not enough for Labor to…
The Western Australian election will be held in early 2017. A WA Newspoll, conducted March to May from a sample of 1140, gives Labor an emphatic 54-46 lead, a 1 point gain for Labor since the October to…
The first national poll to be taken since the official campaign began has produced a shock result. Morgan has Labor leading by 52.5-47.5 on respondent allocated preferences, and 52-48 on previous election…
Final pre-election Australian polls have usually been accurate, at least on primary votes.
Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London…
As expected, yesterday Malcolm Turnbull announced a double-dissolution election for July 2. Unlike a normal House and half-Senate election, a double dissolution means that all seats in both Houses are…
Donald Trump sealed the Republican nomination today, winning Indiana 53-37 over Ted Cruz with just 8% for John Kasich. After the loss, Cruz dropped out of the Republican nomination contest. Kasich has…
Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland…
Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trump’s massive vote majority gave him…
Contact Adrian for
- General
- Media request
- Speaking request
- Consulting / Advising
- Research collaboration
- Research supervision
- Website
- Article Feed
-
- Joined
