At the UK general election held Thursday, the Conservatives lost their majority. With all 650 seats declared, the Conservatives won 318 seats (down 13 since the 2015 election), Labour 262 (up 30), the…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The UK general election will be held in two days, on Thursday 8 June. Polls close at 10pm local time (7am Friday Melbourne time). An exit poll will be released once polls close that will give the estimated…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1655, is completely unchanged on voting intentions since last fortnight’s post-budget Newspoll. Labor leads 53-47, from primary votes…
With two weeks to go until the 8 June UK general election, current polls give the Conservatives about 45%, followed by Labour on 34%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, and the UK Independence Party has fallen…
Donald Trump had never run for a political office before becoming President. Given the rush of Trump scandals in the two weeks since Trump fired FBI director James Comey, Congressional Republicans probably…
After the release of the Federal budget on Tuesday night, much of the political commentariat thought that the budget would be popular, and predicted a lift for the Coalition in the post-budget polls. Graham…
On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trump’s ties to Russia. While such…
With all results except overseas French in, centrist Emmanuel Macron has thrashed the far right Marine Le Pen by a 66.1-33.9 margin in yesterday’s French Presidential runoff election. Le Pen won only two…
Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump…
A Queensland Galaxy poll has Labor leading by 52-48, a one point gain for Labor since early February. Primary votes are 36% for Labor (up 5), 34% for the Liberal Nationals (up 1), 17% for One Nation (down…
In the first round of the French Presidential election held yesterday, centrist Emmanuel Macron won 23.8% of the vote, followed by the far right Marine Le Pen on 21.5%, conservative Francois Fillon on…
Last night, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that a general election would be held 8 June. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, Parliaments are supposed to run for five years, but a 2/3 majority…
Today, a by-election was held in Kansas’ fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1710, had Labor leading by 53-47, a one point gain for Labor since last fortnight’s Newspoll that looked like an outlier. Primary votes…
At the Western Australian election held 11 March, Labor won a landslide in the lower house, winning 41 of the 59 seats. However, in the upper house Labor and the Greens combined won 18 of the 36 seats…
This week’s Ipsos, conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, had Labor leading 55-45, a 4 point gain for Labor since late November. Primary votes were 34% for Labor (up 4), 33% for the Coalition…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 16-19 March from a sample of 1820, has Labor leading 52-48, but this is a 3 point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes are…
With 67% of enrolled voters counted in yesterday’s Western Australian election, the ABC’s election computer was giving Labor 36 of the 59 lower house seats, to 11 Liberals and 5 Nationals. Of the seven…
The West Australian election will be held today. Polls close at 6pm local time (9pm Melbourne time). All three polls taken in the last week give Labor a 54-46 lead, which would represent an 11 point swing…
The West Australian election will be held in eight days, on 11 March. A Fairfax ReachTEL poll, conducted Monday night from a sample of 1660, has Labor leading 52-48, a 2 point gain for Labor since a ReachTEL…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1680, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a 1 point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% for Labor…
The West Australian election will be held in three weeks, on 11 March. A ReachTEL poll has a 50-50 tie, a 2 point gain for the Liberals since a mid-January ReachTEL. After excluding 5.5% undecided, primary…
A Queensland Galaxy poll has One Nation surging to 23%, up 7 points since early November. One Nation’s gains have come at the expense of both major parties, with the Liberal National Party (LNP) on 33…
The first Newspoll of 2017 has Labor leading by 54-46, a 2 point gain for Labor since the final 2016 Newspoll, conducted in early December. Primary votes are 36% for Labor (steady), 35% for the Coalition…
The West Australian election will be held in five weeks, on 11 March. A WA Newspoll, conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1130, gives Labor a 54-46 lead, a 2 point gain for Labor since the August…
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