Following the shock resignation of NSW Premier Mike Baird on Thursday, Seven News commissioned a ReachTEL poll that night. The Coalition leads 55-45 after preferences, a 2 point gain for the Coalition…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The WA state election will be held in two months on 11 March. A ReachTEL poll, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1530, has Labor leading 52-48, unchanged since October. However, One Nation has…
At the US election held on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1630, has Labor leading by 52-48, but this is a one point gain for the Coalition. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (up 1), 36…
The first Ipsos phone poll conducted since the election has primary votes of Coalition 36% (down 6 since the election). Labor 30% (down 5) and Greens 16% (up 6). Labor leads by 51-49 after preferences…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1850, has Labor leading by an unchanged 53-47, from primary votes of 38% Coalition (down 1), 38% Labor (steady) and 10% Greens (steady…
Tuesday’s Newspoll, conducted 3-6 November from a sample of 1850, had Labor leading 53-47, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 39% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (up 1) and 10% for…
A small sample Morgan phone poll of 552, conducted 24-26 October, has Julie Bishop leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred Coalition leader. Bishop has 34% (up 10 since May), to 25% for Turnbull (down 16…
The Western Australian election will be held on 11 March 2017. A ReachTEL poll, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1790, has Labor leading by 52-48, a 1 point gain for Labor since mid-September…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted from last Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1670, had Labor retaining a 52-48 lead from primary votes of 39% Coalition (steady), 37% Labor (up 1) and 10% Greens (steady…
With 78% of enrolled votes counted in yesterday’s ACT election, Labor has won 11 of the 25 seats, to 10 Liberals and 1 Green, with 3 still in doubt. One of the doubtful seats is a contest between Labor…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1620, gives Labor an unchanged 52-48 lead. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (up 1), 36% for Labor (down 1) and 10% for the Greens…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1660, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a 2 point gain for Labor, and their biggest lead since Turnbull deposed Abbott. Primary votes were 38…
The next Western Australian election will be held in six months, on 11 March 2017. A ReachTEL poll, conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 1720, gives the Liberals real hope of coming back from what…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted 8-11 September from a sample of 1680, had an unchanged 50-50 result after preferences from unchanged primary votes of 41% Coalition, 36% Labor and 9% Greens. Turnbull’s…
A Victorian ReachTEL poll, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1650, gives Labor a 51-49 two party lead, a one point gain for the Coalition since the November 2014 election. Primary votes appear…
In the first Newspoll since the July Federal election, Turnbull has a satisfied rating of 34% (down 6 since the pre-election Newspoll) and a dissatified rating of 52% (up 5), for a net approval of -18…
At the 2012 Northern Territory election, the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won 16 of 25 seats, to 8 for Labor and 1 Independent. During a chaotic term, 4 CLP and 1 Labor members defected to sit as Independents…
I have not written about the US Presidential election since late June, owing to coverage of the Australian Federal election. The US election will be held on 8 November. In July, following the FBI’s damaging…
At the election held on 2 July, the Coalition won a bare majority of 76 of the 150 House seats, to 69 for Labor and five crossbenchers, representing a net loss of 14 seats for the Coalition and a net 14…
Last Sunday, I discussed the implications for long and short terms using both the order-of-election method, and the recount method. The major parties have now agreed to use the order-of-election method…
The table below gives the Senate breakdown for each state and territory. 12 Senators were elected for each state, and 2 for each territory, for a total of 76 Senators. The table also gives the percent…
Today and yesterday, the button to distribute preferences was pressed in Victoria, Queensland and NSW. In Victoria, 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Derryn Hinch were elected, as expected. In Queensland…
In SA, final Senate primary votes gave the Liberals 4.24 quotas, Labor 3.55, the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 2.83, the Greens 0.76, One Nation 0.39 and Family First 0.37. 4 Liberals, 3 Labor, 3 NXT and 1…
Today, the “Button” was pressed to distribute preferences for the WA Senate. 5 Liberals, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 One Nation were elected. The WA and Tasmanian Senate results mean it is likely that Labor…
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