We have had three polls so far this week, with ReachTEL and Ipsos both showing a 50-50 tie, and Newspoll repeating last fortnight’s poll that had Labor ahead 51-49. Here is the poll table showing all polls…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Yesterday, Ted Cruz won all 13 delegates that were awarded at the Colorado Republican state convention; he had earlier won all 21 awarded at Congressional District (CD) conventions. Cruz is also likely…
This week’s Newspoll is the first since Turnbull became PM to have Labor in front, by a 51-49 margin, a 2% gain for Labor since last fortnight. The catalyst for this change was probably the state income…
On Monday, Turnbull announced that Parliament would be recalled on the 18 April so that the Senate could debate and vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) bill. If the Senate…
Donald Trump’s highlight today was crushing Marco Rubio 46-27 in Rubio’s home state of Florida. He won every Floridian county except Miami-Dade, where Cuban Americans voted for Rubio. The defeat forced…
Ipsos has the Coalition leading by 53-47, a 1% gain for the Coalition since the February Ipsos. Primary votes are 45% for the Coalition (up 1), 31% for Labor (down 1) and 14% for the Greens (down 1). Respondent…
This week’s 50-50 Newspoll showed that last fortnight’s Newspoll was no fluke, and we also now have a 50-50 from Essential. Morgan is at 53-47 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote of only 29.5% in…
Donald Trump won 7 of the 11 Super Tuesday states, to 3 for Ted Cruz and 1 for Marco Rubio. Trump’s best state was the Democratic stronghold of Massachusetts, where he won 49%. He also had solid wins in…
Hillary Clinton today crushed Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina Democratic primary by a 74-26 margin, winning every South Carolina county. According to exit polls, black voters made up 61% of the Democratic…
This week we had a shock 50-50 Newspoll result, a 3% gain for Labor since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. However, other polling this week has been better for the Coalition. Here is this week’s poll…
The government has announced changes to the Senate electoral system. The group voting ticket has been abandoned, and instead voters will need to number at least six groups above the line. However, there…
Donald Trump has won the South Carolina (SC) primary with 32.5% of the vote, followed by Marco Rubio at 22.5% and Ted Cruz at 22.3%. Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Ben Carson were a long way behind with less…
We have had four polls published in the last two weeks which imply that there is a swing to Labor, though the Coalition remains well ahead. Morgan is a week out of step with the other polls in the table…
At the New Hampshire (NH) primary held today, Donald Trump won 35% of the vote in the Republican contest, winning over twice as many votes as his next challenger, Ohio Governor John Kasich with 16%. Ted…
Religious right winger Ted Cruz has won the Republican Iowa Caucuses with 27.7% of the votes, to 24.3% for Donald Trump and 23.1% for the establishment favourite Marco Rubio. Ben Carson was a distant fourth…
The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday 1 February. The caucuses begin at 7pm Iowa time (12 noon Tuesday Melbourne time). There is some attempt at persuasion before people vote at the caucuses, causing…
The US Presidential nominations are not decided by a national vote, but rather by a series of state by state contests that are held between February and June this year. These contests elect delegates to…
This week’s Newspoll had Turnbull’s satisfied rating down 8 points to 52%, and his dissatisfied rating up 8 points to 30%, for a net approval of +22, down 16 net points since last fortnight. However, Shorten’s…
At the North Sydney by-election held yesterday, the Liberals won 47.5% of the vote (down 13.5% on the 2013 election), Independent Stephen Ruff won 18.8%, and the Greens won 16.1% (up 0.8%). The remaining…
This week’s Newspoll had the Coalition ahead by 53-47, unchanged from last fortnight. This was despite Turnbull’s already stellar approval ratings increasing again; his satisfied rating was up 4% to 60…
This week’s Ipsos gave the Coalition a crushing 56-44 lead using previous election preferences, a 3% gain for the Coalition since the last Ipsos in mid-October. However, the other two polls released this…
Last week there was much speculation that the government will propose raising the GST to 15% from its current 10% at the next election. So far this talk has failed to either dent Turnbull’s ratings or…
All polls in the last two weeks are now at 52 or 53% Two Party Preferred (2PP) to the Coalition, with the exception of Morgan (55% 2PP). These results are by last election preferences, and current respondent…
After last week’s Newspoll and Essential were reasonable for Labor, this week’s Morgan and Ipsos polls both gave the Coalition a big lead, while Essential stayed at 51-49 to the Coalition. Ipsos gave Turnbull…
At today’s Canadian election, the centre left Liberals have won 184 of the 338 Canadian seats, 14 more than required for a one party majority. The Conservatives won 99 seats, the pro-labour New Democratic…
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