This week’s Newspoll had Labor leading by a 52-48 margin, a 2% swing to the Coalition. Morgan’s press release has Labor leading by 56-44, a 1.5% swing to Labor. However, Morgan has been using respondent-allocated…
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
There have been five polls taken in the last ten days, following the shooting down of MH17 on Friday 18 July. Prior to MH17, polls showed Labor leading by about a 54-46 margin. In the immediate aftermath…
Note: Many updates have been added in the sections below the carbon tax repeal section on Thursday 24 July. Last Thursday 17 July, the Coalition finally succeeded in repealing the carbon tax, established…
Elections will be held by early 2015 in the eastern seaboard states of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. All three states currently have first-term Coalition governments. On current polling, there…
Since the budget, we have only had the three regular polls from Essential, Newspoll and Morgan. While Essential has increased to a Labor Two Party Preferred (2PP) lead of 54-46, the other two polls have…
We had five polls released this week following the May 13 Budget. Below is the table of poll results, which shows Labor gaining strongly in Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan. The Coalition’s two strongest polls…
This week we have had five polls, released from Saturday night to Tuesday afternoon. All show Labor ahead by at least a 52-48 margin, and all except Essential show a swing to Labor. The Coalition primary…
At the WA Senate re-election held on 5 April, the total major party vote was less than 60%, with the combined Liberal/National vote at 37.1%, down 7.2%, while Labor got a dire 21.5%, down 5.1%. The Greens…
Monday’s Nielsen poll had the Greens at 17%, up 5% on the March Nielsen. This is apparently the highest level of Greens support that either Nielsen or Newspoll has ever recorded. The Nielsen poll also…
Since election night, almost 32,000 postal votes have been added to the WA Senate count. When we look at the results by electorates where postals have been counted, we find that the Liberals are doing…
After a very long election night, the Liberals currently lead the WA Senate count with 33.7% of the vote, down 5.5%. Labor has 21.8%, down 4.8%, the Greens have 15.9%, up 6.4%, Palmer United Party (PUP…
At the last federal election, there was a very close exclusion which affected the final result in the WA Senate. This was compounded by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) losing 1400 votes. Acting…
In Tasmania, the Liberals won a decisive majority with 15 of the 25 Tasmanian seats. Despite winning a clear majority of the vote in SA, the Liberals failed to win government, with Labor clinging to power…
Last week’s Nielsen had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, but this week’s polls have Labor ahead. Here is the usual poll table. Note that Essential is not well regarded after a poor performance at the…
In Tasmania the Liberals clearly won a majority last night with over 51% of the vote, ousting Labor after 16 years. However, in South Australia, a hung Parliament is likely with Labor winning 23 seats…
It is virtually certain that the Liberals will win a clear majority in today’s Tasmanian election. In South Australia, a hung Parliament now looks plausible, though a Liberal majority is still more likely…
Elections will be held in both South Australia and Tasmania on Saturday 15 March. It is likely that the Liberals will win government in both states. All Australian mainland states use the same general…
Last week a Nielsen poll gave the Coalition its first poll lead from a reputable pollster since November last year. This week’s Newspoll has given Labor its biggest lead since prior to the 2010 election…
After the rapid gains for Labor last November and December, the Coalition has recovered some ground, though Labor still leads in the polls. Here are the three polls published this week. For Newspoll, it…
Kevin Rudd’s retirement from Federal politics gives the Liberals an opportunity to take his seat of Griffith at a by-election this Saturday 8 February. However, although Rudd only won Griffith by a narrow…
This week and last week we have had polls from Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL, all giving Labor clear two party leads. While the Nielsen that gave Labor a surprise lead three weeks ago was off-trend at…
Final results have now been released for the September Federal election. The Coalition won 45.6% of the primary vote, up 1.9% on 2010. Labor won 33.4%, down 4.6%, the Greens received 8.7%, down 3.1%, and…
The early polls make it clear that there has not been a post-election honeymoon for the Abbott government. A honeymoon is the expected aftermath of a change in government election, and the Hawke, Howard…
In Western Australia, three Liberals and one Labor candidate are certain of election. The initial results showed that the last two seats were being won by a second Labor candidate, and Palmer United Party…
The table below shows the final Senate results, as announced by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) for each state and territory. The results in WA could change because only 14 votes decided a critical…
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