One Nation’s surge into the double digits in three separate polls comes at the expense of the Coalition.
- Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Compared to other US presidents at the same point in their term, Trump’s ratings are only better than … his own.
Polls in two states have seen Labor leaders close the popularity gap between them and the Liberals.
Two months after a no-confidence motion in the premier passed, spurring an early election, a second motion has failed. The island state now has a government.
The island state’s second election in two years was brought on by a no-confidence vote. And there’s another one coming - even more complicated than the last.
The count in the Tasmanian election is over, with voters delivering a hung parliament with largely the same make-up as the last, albeit with some new characters.
As the preferences are distributed in the island state, Labor look likely to take half the seats in the northern electorate, despite a lower primary vote.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese goes into the 48th parliament with a strong polling performance - but not as good as this time in 2022.
While the final results in Tasmania’s second election in 16 months won’t be known for days, the Liberals are well ahead – but will fall short of a clear majority.
Polling ahead of the count this Saturday shows the island state will likely go from one hung parliament to another.
Victorians are not happy with the Allan Labor government. But they’re not wild about the alternative, either.
Early voting has begun in the island state’s snap election - but the pollsters can’t decide which party might win.
While the lion’s share of Greens preferences went to Labor, 75% of One Nation put Coalition ahead.
While the Labor opposition might be leading the opinion polls, Tasmania’s Hare-Clark voting system means the crossbench will once again be kingmakers.
There has also been a 3.1% swing to Labor since the 2022 election.
The polls told us that Labor had recovered to an election-winning position, but they understated the magnitude of that win.
The 40 Senate seats up for election this year have resulted in gains for Labor and losses for the Coalition.
As the Senate count continues, there are two House of Representatives recounts, in Bradfield and Goldstein.
As the final Senate results trickle in, the party splits remain the same in Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, close lower house seats go to recounts.
Some seats are so close they may qualify for a re-count.
Almost all the lower house seats have been decided- but some will go for a recount.
As the vote counting in the upper house continues, the government is polling strongly. It’s also managed at least 91 seats in the lower house.
As vote counting continues, one Teal independent has lost their seat, with other races still too close to call.
Some contests are so close it may be some time before a result is confirmed.
Labor’s huge win in the House of Representatives looks like it will be mirrored by an improvement in their Senate representation too.
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