Articles on Forecasting

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Hurricane Irma rapidly intensified before hitting the Caribbean and Florida in 2017, but intensity is still hard to forecast. NASA

Why AI has trouble predicting the fury of hurricane intensity

Storms like 2026’s Hurricane Polo that rapidly intensify can catch communities off guard and leave little time to prepare or evacuate. Being able to forecast those risks can save lives.
Hurricane Sandy hit New York and its suburbs in 2012 as shown by imagery from Nasa’s GOES-13. Robert Simmon with data courtesy of NASA/NOAA GOES Project Science team

Can AI help coastal cities prepare for rising seas and extreme events?

Extreme storm surges can be predicted much faster with high accuracy thanks to a new AI model that helps researchers and practitioners improve coastal flood risk assessment and adaptation planning.
One of NOAA’s WP-3D Orion hurricane hunters, dubbed Miss Piggy, flies over Tropical Storm Idalia on Aug. 28, 2023. Nick Underwood/NOAA

Hurricane forecasts have improved dramatically, saving lives, but federal cuts threaten to stretch NOAA resources to breaking point

A hurricane scientist explains the technology forecasters rely on to keep people safe and help communities all along the Atlantic coast know when to evacuate.
A couple battle floodwaters as they evacuate their Houston apartment complex on April 18, 2016. AP Photo/David J. Phillip

What if Texas’ destructive Tax Day storm had centered on inner Houston instead? It’s why cities should plan for the improbable

Computer models of the storm hitting different areas show how much damage is possible, yet flood maps still focus on where flooding is most likely instead.
Many coastal communities rely on satellite data to understand the risks as hurricanes head their way. Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

Hurricane forecasters are losing 3 key satellites ahead of peak storm season − a meteorologist explains why it matters

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program has been particularly important for understanding when a hurricane is about to rapidly intensify, a dangerous situation for coastal communities.

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