This method of predicting results has been shown to be accurate over 100 years of US presidential elections.
Articles on Opinion polls
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Political polls can make for dramatic headlines. But they are a snapshot of when they were taken, not a predictor of election outcomes. Follow these expert tips to make sense of the stats.
If elected, Biden would be the oldest person to occupy the White House. But he’s by far the most popular candidate the Democrats have.
Though public opinion surveys offer some hope, there are several concerns for democracy’s consolidation in West Africa.
What deep-dive polls reveal at the political landscape of America as the 2022 midterm election approaches.
Most Russians get their news from government-controlled television. But those who look to Telegram, an online platform, are more likely to have views that break from the official position.
The Greens and Labor have a mixed record of working together, but can learn from past experience.
Latest results show Labor ahead of the Coalition federally as well as in South Australia, Queensland and possibly NSW.
It’s been a tough year for the 47th US president.
Indonesian public support for the death penalty declines when they learn more about its scope and administration.
14% of the UK population often make up a much smaller proportion of people of people polled.
How many Americans really have lost touch with reality?
A survey of US voters shows that – on their most important issue, COVID-19 – the US president fared particularly badly.
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
With the next federal election possible as soon as August 2021, the need for reform of polling standards in Australia is urgent.
Punters are more cautious than the polls, suggesting this election might be closer than the media is reporting.
Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
We all think men are at it way more than they are. But estimates of how much nooky young women are getting are basically ludicrous.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research
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Professor of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology
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Professor, Future Fellow and Head of Statistics at UNSW, and a Deputy Director of the Australian Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS), UNSW
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Assistant lecturer, University of Groningen
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Professor of Communication, Cardiff University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Professor of Political Science, University of Edinburgh
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Senior Research Director (Social Attitudes), ScotCen Social Research
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester
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Professor and Program Head, Justice Health Research Program, UNSW
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Emeritus Professor of Sociology, University of Technology Sydney
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Professor of Government, University of Essex