Articles on Modelling

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Choices in a fog of uncertainty: lessons for coronavirus from climate change

The science to policy process that was developed to guide climate mitigation decisions can be applied to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, without having to be reinvented.
Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam and Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Howard Njoo are reflected in a computer screen showing data on Canada’s COVID-19 situation during a news conference in Ottawa, on April 13, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Predicting possible outcomes to coronavirus and other pandemics with models and simulations

Policy-makers at various levels of government rely on models and simulations to make predictions about controlling the spread of COVID-19.
Staff members of Local NGO Shining Hope for Communities (SHOFCO) in the Kibera slum, Nairobi, on March 20, 2020. Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

Predicting COVID‑19: what applying a model in Kenya would look like

Models can predict the risk and spread of diseases and establish the time and place to implement optimal prevention and control mechanisms.
When politicians use selected modelling results to justify their decisions on contentious projects like Melbourne’s North East Link, the credibility of transport models suffers by association. Vic Govt/AAP

The problem with transport models is political abuse, not their use in planning

Transport modelling has been tarnished by its use to justify the predetermined projects politicians favour. But, if used more transparently, it’s a valuable tool for planning our future cities.
Whether it’s birds in a flock or drivers in traffic, agent-based modelling can describe complex phenomena by applying a simple set of rules to each individual’s behaviour. Barry Sweet/EPA

Traffic is complex, but modelling using deceptively simple rules can help unravel what’s going on

By identifying and applying the key rules governing the behaviour of each individual, agent-based modelling offers insights into complex phenomena like traffic jams and flocking.
A 2018 pilot project between the Public Health Agency of Canada and Advanced Symbolics will use social media posts as a resource to predict regional suicide rates. (Shutterstock)

How AI is helping to predict and prevent suicides

From predicting suicide risk to chatbot therapy, artificial intelligence is all the rage in suicide prevention. The question is, can it really work?
If more people live in the Adelaide Hills, they are more likely to be exposed to bushfires. David Mariuz/AAP

Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?

What decisions can we make today to reduce the future risk of hazards like floods and fire? Particularly in a time of climate change, modelling various plausible futures helps us plan for uncertainty.

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