Hezbollah faces an uncertain future as the Lebanese public becomes disillusioned with it. Here are four scenarios for what the group could do next.
Articles on Hezbollah
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In past agreements, there appeared to be a tacit understanding between Hezbollah and Israel that conflict would eventually resume.
Israel has long sought to gain a military advantage by degrading its adversaries’ military capabilities outside of times of direct conflict.
Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah’s rocket attacks have boxed the US president into a corner.
A strong deal would build in real penalties for going back to war: automatic, reversible costs that fall on anyone who restarts the fighting.
The Israeli prime minister faces an invidious choice in an election year: kowtow to a powerful ally, or risk displeasure at home by ending the war with Hezbollah.
President Donald Trump has talked of a potential role for Syrian forces in fighting Hezbollah – a move that would raise alarm in Lebanon.
The search for peace in the Middle East is putting a strain on relations between the two leaders.
Tehran has exploited its asymmetric warfare capabilities to strengthen its position.
Ordinary Lebanese and Israeli people are caught in the middle of a longstanding conflict between the Israeli government and Hezbollah.
Unable to defeat Iran, Israel shifts its focus to Lebanon, fearing U.S. negotiations with Tehran could limit operations against Hezbollah.
The Israeli prime minister is using the ‘Gaza playbook’ to decimate southern Lebanon, but it won’t eliminate the threat from the militant group.
The majority of Lebanese people distrusts Hezbollah, but the Israeli attacks are driving many in the south back into their fold.
Lebanon and Israel have agreed a ten-day ceasefire, pausing hostilities that broke out in March.
The potential for dangerous escalation has increased with the US decision to pursue any ships anywhere in the world they think may be helping Iran evade sanctions.
Knowing what comes next in Operation Epic Fury is better understood by grasping the evolution of Iran’s military structure and capabilities.
With Trump trying to get out and Netanyahu determined not to give up in Lebanon, a path to peace is hard to find.
As before, however, any such move into the country would be fraught with the same risks that have bedeviled past Israeli invasions of Lebanon.
With the return of Israeli forces, the Lebanese parliament scrapped elections scheduled for May. The move is a recurring theme in the country’s fractured politics.
The Israeli prime minister’s chances of re-election are likely to hang on the outcomes of the war against Iran.
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Director of Dickinson Program in New Zealand & Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Otago, Dickinson College
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Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
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Professor of History and Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
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Senior Lecturer, Politics & International Relations, Monash University
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Professor in Sociology, Queen's University Belfast
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Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University
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Professor of International Relations, Lancaster University
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Professor of Political Science, Sciences Po
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Associate Professor of Practice of Public Policy, University of Michigan
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Director, Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), Deakin University
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Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University
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Assistant Professor of Migration Studies; Director of the Institute for Migration Studies, Lebanese American University
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Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies, University of Denver
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Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Queen's University Belfast
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Postdoctoral fellow at Queen's University's Centre for International Policy and Defence (CIDP), Queen's University, Ontario