The Albanese government might be likened to the harried house-husband struggling with untidy rooms while a property inspection looms that threatens a forced move into less salubrious accommodation.
Articles on RBA
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Individual Australians are in a recession, with per-person income slipping since mid-2022. Interest rates are falling overseas. So forget rate hikes: the RBA’s next move is likely to be down.
The result of 3.8% is what the Reserve Bank expected. The so-called underlying rate of inflation actually fell.
The Reserve Bank will decide whether to hike or hold rates next Tuesday. The
bank’s new deputy governor has offered us some clues to which way they might go.
All public attention is currently focused on the Sunday reshuffle. Meanwhile behind the scenes, preoccupying the government.is the June quarter inflation figure out on Wednesday.
The Conversation’s expert panel expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates two to three times over the next 18 months, with the first cut likely in March.
The Reserve Bank will keep rates high until it sees clear evidence inflation is heading back toward its target band. It’s really that simple.
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Tuesday’s budget will show there has been an improvement of $10.5 billion in the bottom line. The update forecasted a deficit of $1.1 billion for 2023-24.
Holding up Labor’s female vote will be vital, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared Tuesday will bring “a budget for mums and middle Australia”.
While the iconic ‘budget tree’ has its own narrative it’s now up to Chalmers to weave his budget story and kick some goals for the government.
Australia’s economy is already alarmingly weak. A big cut in government spending in next week’s budget could push us from a per capita recession into an actual recession.
Every time the Reserve Bank has pushed up interest rates in order to take money out of the system, it’s also been putting money in, in a way it didn’t use to.
The Conversation’s expert panel expects inflation to continue to fall, but more gradually, and it expects the RBA to be slow in responding. Unemployment should climb and economic growth weaken.
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.
Up until December 9 1983, officials used to announce each morning how much the dollar was worth. Even bankers were shocked about letting the market set the price – but it’s served Australia well.
Average prices fell in October, driven down by dives in the price of petrol and overseas travel, and an increase in Commonwealth Rent assistance.
Sure, a good many of us don’t trust politicians – but surely politicians ought to trust politicians. History shows why they might one day need to overturn a Reserve Bank decision.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made the first ever Reserve Bank appointment from outside the country as part of an effort to fight ‘groupthink’.
Australian financial markets are now pointing to a close to zero chance of further rate rises – with a fair chance of a rate cut next year. That’s thanks to the latest news from the US and UK.
Top contributors
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Scientia Professor of Economics, UNSW
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Senior lecturer, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra
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Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney
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Associate Professor, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne
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Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology
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Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
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Emeritus Professor of Economics (Griffith University) and Teaching Associate (University of Queensland), Griffith University
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Honorary Associate Professor in the School of History, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University
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Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Dean of Business School, University of Southern Queensland