Democrats’ surprise at the results of the 2024 presidential election is partly a result of pollsters’ inaccuracies and partly of partisan filter bubbles.
Articles on Public opinion polls
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Hold your breath and make sure you vote, because the result is likely to be a squeaker.
Modern survey research does face challenges from changes in technology and in how people live their increasingly busy lives.
Liberal strategists plan to increase the prime minister’s exposure, thrusting the most unpopular politician in the country right in the face of Canadians. Here’s why it isn’t likely to work.
The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
Both the Biden and Trump campaigns will work to mobilize their bases and maximize turnout among their supporters. But those votes alone will probably not be enough to ensure victory.
The 2024 elections may be the tipping point that enables opposition parties to portray themselves as viable contenders in forming a national coalition government.
Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.
Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.
Top contributors
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Professor, Department of Political Science, Western University
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Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan-Dearborn
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Postdoctoral research associate, University of the Witwatersrand
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Assistant Professor, Public Administration, Queen's University, Ontario
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Associate Professor of Communications, Director of Emerson College Polling, Emerson College
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Senior Director of Emerson College Polling, Emerson College
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Affiliated Professor in Communication Studies, Emerson College
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Director of the Quinnipiac Poll, Quinnipiac University
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Assistant Professor of Public Relations, Auburn University
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Professor of Political Science, Auburn University
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Assistant Professor of Political Science, Auburn University