The Newspolls have been consistently worse for the Coalition since the
leadership change – before that Labor had been cut back to a narrow 51-49% lead.
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In the aftermath of the Wentworth byelection, the Coalition government has suffered another set-back in the polls.
The latest polls are a mixed bag for the Morrison government: there were gains in primary and two-party preferred vote, but the polls still have Labor in an election-winning position.
The Morrison and Berejiklian governments might be of the same stripe but, with both facing elections in the first half of 2019, their interests rub up against each other uncomfortably.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
The Coalition’s recent hit in the polls seems to be subsiding, while Kerryn Phelps may have made a damaging error by announcing she’ll preference the Liberals in the Wentworth byelection.
The Newspoll two party vote remains much worse than the last days of Malcolm Turnbull, and the controversy over his ousting continues.
Another poor showing in the polls for the government, with analysis showing the Coalition most likely to lose support at the next election among the well-educated, the young and in Victoria.
The Liberal party is also reeling after a massive swing has cost it the previously safe seat of Wagga Wagga in Saturday’s NSW state byelection.
The Coalition’s primary vote has plunged 4 points to 33%, and Labor’s vote has jumped from 35% to 41%, in The Australian’s poll, which comes as Morrison moved quickly to announce his ministerial team.
While the two-party preferred polling remains steady, the prime minister has taken a tumble in his personal approval ratings.
As the US president brags about his approval ratings, an analysis of the poll numbers shows the upcoming mid-terms to be very tight races.
Despite reports Labor might struggle in Braddon and Longman, the byelections delivered a comfortable win in Braddon and a strong one in Longman.
With the much anticipated Super Saturday byelections on Saturday, the polls in Longman and Braddon still show a very tight race.
More worrying for Labor than Bill Shorten’s bad, though, is Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s rising ratings.
While the Turnbull government’s ratings have improved, the focus on its tax policies and the Barnaby Joyce story may be holding back its vote.
Labor still holds a narrow two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, while polling takes a skewed turn.
Labor continues to hold a 51-49% two-party lead in the wake of last week’s budget.
Malcolm Turnbull may have lost 31 consecutive Newspolls, but the latest result shows a narrowing between the two major parties, and the Coalition’s best performance since September 2016.
This bald-faced refusal to acknowledge their own inconvenient history in part comes from the politicians’ belief that if you just burnish the “spin”, you can get away with saying anything.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Southern Cross University
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Professor, the McKinnon Institute for Political Leadership, Monash University
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Professor of Politics, Griffith University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Tony Walker AM is a Friend of The Conversation.
Director, La Trobe University
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Senior Lecturer in Clinical Ethics and Health Law, University of Newcastle
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Professor, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia