The prime minister’s approval ratings and the two-party preferred vote come closer to alignment, while Donald Trump still faces an uphill battle in November if economic doldrums continue.
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An “outlier” poll suggests most people approve of the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, but remain distrustful of the government’s performance more broadly.
Nearly two-thirds of people (61%) were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance as prime minister, up a massive 20 points from the last Newspoll.
Usually a major crisis benefits incumbent leaders. But that has not been the case for Donald Trump – and his chances of re-election in November now look shaky.
Morrison suffered a drop in his job performance rating, with 37% saying they were satisfied, down eight points from early December, and 59% saying they were dissatisfied, up 11 points.
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
The election is complicated by the apparent lumpiness of the vote, with seats expected to change hands in both directions.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
On primary votes, the ALP dropped a point to 36%, while the Coalition was static on 38%, from the last Newspoll a week ago.
The latest Newspoll shows a further tightening on two-party preferred, but was making some strange assumptions about the slow of preferences.
Neither party got a bump from the official start of the federal election campaign, with Labor retaining its 52-48 advantage in the latest Newspoll.
The Newspoll, in Monday’s Australian, shows signs of the vote polarising as the campaign formally starts for the May 18 election.
As Morrison readies to call the election, with speculation he will announce next weekend for May 18, he has also increased his lead over Shorten as better prime minister in Newspoll.
Weak economic data and sluggish wages have contributed to the Coalition’s poor showing in the latest Newspoll, which gives Labor a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.
The worsening Coalition performance comes after last week’s sluggish economic figures and amid
more bickering on the conservative side of politics, including pot shots from Malcolm Turnbull.
Despite a week of heated debate over the medevac legilation, the latest polls continue to show Labor with an election-winning lead.
The latest polls show Labor holding a solid lead over the Coalition, while seat polls show that Tony Abbott may struggle to retain his Sydney seat.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos and Essential polls give a strong lead to Labor, with some interesting – and variable - detail on the attributes voters see in the leaders of the two major parties.
The final results post-election Victorian upper house are not a ringing endorsement for democracy - and provide a strong case for reform.
And for the first time since the 1999 republic referendum, those opposed to a republic outnumber those in favour of it.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra
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Emeritus professor, Southern Cross University
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Professor, the McKinnon Institute for Political Leadership, Monash University
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Professor of Politics, Griffith University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
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Tony Walker AM is a Friend of The Conversation.
Director, La Trobe University
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Senior Lecturer in Clinical Ethics and Health Law, University of Newcastle
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Professor, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia