Pollsters’ credibility is constantly at stake. If the industry collectively misses the mark, public trust erodes, and confidence in the system itself is called into question.
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Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
With early voting about to begin, Labor has widened its margin in polls to a strong winning position.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
On primary votes, the ALP dropped a point to 36%, while the Coalition was static on 38%, from the last Newspoll a week ago.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Adjust Professor and Pollster, Johns Hopkins University