Polling ahead of the count this Saturday shows the island state will likely go from one hung parliament to another.
Articles on Tasmanian election 2024
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While it was clear the Liberals were set to govern in minority weeks ago, the end of the vote count leaves the party with one less seat than expected, making forming government harder.
The Coalition lead Labor 53–47, excluding undecided, in a federal Essential poll.
Inflation and the cost of living continue to eat away at Labor’s polling advantage.
Despite a swing against it, the Liberal party has likely won the most seats, but will fall short of a majority. While the vote counting will continue, the political fight is now to form government.
Hours into the count in the Tasmanian election, the state can expect a hung parliament. Meanwhile, Labor is succeeding in a South Australian state byelection.
The polls are favouring the Liberals for Saturday’s state election, but whether they could govern in their own right is far less clear.
Tasmanians head to the polls on Saturday in an election that was called more than a year early. After a largely uninspiring campaign, here’s your guide to state election.
Polls aren’t favouring state Labor parties. Based on the latest figures, Labor would struggle to form government in Tasmania, while support for the party in Queensland has dipped.
Two new polls also have Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred measure.
While Labor will be relieved at holding Dunkley, polls point to a rockier path to the next federal election.
The Tasmanian Liberal government has called an early election, but some recent polling suggests a rise in the popularity of Jacqui Lambie’s party.
Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania