While media outlets are signing deals with Polymarket and Kalshi for their insights into the wisdom of crowds, gamblers are pouncing on opportunities to wager on geopolitics and celebrity weddings.
Articles on Predictions
Displaying 1 - 20 of 43 articles
We often think of conversation as effortless. In fact, it’s a finely tuned dance of listening and speaking.
Anthropologists and historians study divination because it sheds light on the fears and anxieties of particular cultures, many of which are universal.
Astrology and astronomy were once practiced side by side by scientists like Galileo and Kepler. And they’re more similar than you might think.
Understanding why people underpredict expenses could help them budget more accurately – and even encourage them to save more money.
Buying and selling stocks – with real or play money – is a way to harness the wisdom of the crowd about questions like who is going to win a competition.
Social influencers vie for public attention in a crowded market place. This makes the bold and the ruthless even more likely to opt for strategic dishonesty if it will further their interests.
Some so-called superforecasters are claimed to have predicted the course of the pandemic better than scientific experts.
Members of the public were more overconfident and less accurate in predicting the likely number of infections and deaths, but both groups missed the mark.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
Can political prediction models pick the election winner better than the polls, the weather or Washington’s football team?
His life’s work was asserting the humanity and history of the Bantu people, while proposing that the soul was able to bring knowledge of the past and of the future into the present.
Some people are growing weary with romantic and dystopian visions of the future. Instead, our focus is on now.
Predicting life expectancy remains in the realm of science fiction, but it may soon be possible. Are we prepared for such information? And who else would benefit from this knowledge?
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Plenty of services use AI to study your behaviour to suggest new things to you. So could such a tool help you decide how to vote?
A new tool called EcoCast helps fishermen in the West Coast figure out where it’s best to fish that day.
We can’t simply try to work out what’s going to happen during the fourth industrial revolution.
Technology can only go so far in making sense of our vast and intricate atmosphere.
Australia has won the soccer World Cup three times, in simulation games only. So what are the challenges to predicting the winner?
Top contributors
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Research Associate, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor; Department of Journalism and Multimedia Arts [JMA], Duquesne University
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James Walker is a Friend of The Conversation.
Emeritus Professor of Communication, Saint Xavier University
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Researcher in Ecosystem Dynamics, University of California, Santa Cruz
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Professor of Statistics, Queensland University of Technology
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Lecturer, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
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Research scientist, University of Reading
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Neuroethics Program DIrector, Center for Ethics, Emory University
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Assistant professor, Texas A&M University-Commerce
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Royal Society Research Professor, University of Oxford
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Associate Professor of Psychology, Adelaide University
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Professor in the Department of English Studies, Durham University
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Endowed Sky Research Professor, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
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Lecturer in Software Engineering, Monash University