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In 2024, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump’s popular support for a third consecutive presidential election. Manuel Augusto Moreno/Getty Images

No cheery time for election pollsters in run‑up to US midterms

There are no guarantees that pollsters’ troubles in recent elections and popular skepticism about their dependability will be alleviated anytime soon.
People wager on potential Democratic presidential candidates on the predictions market site Polymarket on Feb. 25, 2026. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Prediction markets are opening many new opportunities for unregulated insider trading and unethical bets – in the name of making a game out of politics

The rapidly growing popularity of prediction markets is sparking worries about the markets’ effects on US politics, where campaign staff has bet on its candidate’s electoral performance.

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