Four possible scenarios for the future of Iran.
Articles on Iran
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The war in Iran is likely to lead to several issues for China, but it also presents Beijing with opportunities.
The presence of a warship can be the most tangible and visible sign of bilateral and multilateral friendships.
How to read the signals in the markets.
The Trump administration is likely hoping the US can be less involved in the Middle East after this war, if it results in a different Iran.
Iran’s authorities have moved fast to show they are still in charge. But selecting a new supreme leader may take some time.
The rise in the oil price so far complicates the outlook, but does not resemble past energy crises.
Regime change has long proved tempting to large states. But it rarely goes to plan.
Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf nations have spent years cultivating an image of being an oasis of stability in the Mideast. The current war risks undoing all that work.
Khamenei was a deeply polarizing figure in Iran – perceived by some as a martyr and others as an oppressor.
It is possible that Tehran has assumed British complicity in the launching of Operation Epic Fury.
Oil prices are responding to risk – not just supply shortages.
Trump has shifted American policy towards Iran from one of containment to direct confrontation.
By using its drone and missile arsenal on its neighbours, Iran is telling the region, and the world, the regime will not go quietly.
Daily compliance of international law remains the norm. Violations do occur – sometimes brazenly – but they are exceptions.
War has caused chaos for airlines in the Middle East, stranding tens of thousands of passengers.
Silence from the US side after a third round of indirect talks and frustration expressed by President Donald Trump set the stage for military strikes.
Iran has warned it could close down the strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil transits each day.
Even if the U.S. and Israel succeed in bringing about regime change in Iran, they may create an even worse geopolitical situation.
A public uprising might not be enough to topple a deeply entrenched political system backed by armed paramilitary groups.
Top contributors
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Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
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Professor of International Relations, Lancaster University
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Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University
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Henry J. Leir Professor of Practice in Economics of the Middle East, Brandeis University
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Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University
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Director, Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), Deakin University
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Director of the Curtin Extremism Research Network (CERN), Curtin University
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Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex
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Honorary Research Fellow, Department of International Politics, City St George's, University of London
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Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Associate Professor in International Politics, UCL
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Associate Professor of Practice of Public Policy, University of Michigan
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Professor of the Practice of Political Science and International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
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Director of Dickinson Program in New Zealand & Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Otago, Dickinson College