Harold Tobin

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Seismologists monitor the Earth’s activity, but they can’t predict a day, time and place for the next ‘big one.’ Christian Miranda/AFP via Getty Images

Seismologists can’t predict an impending earthquake, but longer‑term forecasts and brief warnings after one starts are possible

Harold Tobin, University of Washington

The idea that scientists could warn a region that a big quake was coming at a certain time – with enough advance notice for large-scale preparation and evacuation – remains a dream, not a reality.

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