Andrew Dowdy

Experience

• 2023–present
  A/Professor, University of Melbourne
• 2011–2023
  Principal research scientist, Bureau of Meteorology
• 2007–2011
  Professional officer, Bureau of Meteorology
• 2006–2007
  Policy Officer, Department of the Environment and Heritage
• 2001–2003
  Lidar physicist, Australian Antarctic Division

Education

• 2005 
  University of Adelaide, in collaboration with Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Germany, PhD

Publications

• 2026
  The contribution of atmospheric features to mean and extreme precipitation across Australia, Environmental Research Communications
• 2026
  Characteristics of the landscape and atmosphere prior to two black summer Australian fires of 2019–20, Agriculture and Forest Meteorology
• 2026
  An intercomparison of climate model bias correction methods across Australia, JSHESS
• 2026
  What do large hail, tornado, and severe thunderstorm wind environments have in common across continents?, BAMS
• 2026
  Super-scaling of wind gusts with thermal downdrafts in cloud-resolving simulations, Weather and Climate Extremes
• 2026
  Developing evidence briefs for landscape fire management, Journal of Applied Ecology
• 2026
  Multivariate Climate Analogues for Australian Viticulture Regions Under Climate Change, Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research
• 2026
  Changing thunderstorms environments in Saudi Arabia: Frequency, variability and drivers of change, Atmospheric Research
• 2025
  Can stratospheric nudging improve surface predictability? Insights from the 2019 Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming, Climate and Atmospheric Science
• 2025
  Unravelling Individual and Joint Effects of Large‐Scale Climate Modes and Surface Weather Features on Streamflow in the Murray River, Australia, International Journal of Climatology
• 2025
  Distinguishing environmental controls on strong vs. extreme wind gusts, Weather and Climate Extremes
• 2025
  Novel climate analysis methods applied to the Australian ESCI projections data, Frontiers in Climate
• 2025
  The fire environment of five Australian cities, Natural Hazards
• 2025
  Downdrafts and convective gusts in high‐resolution simulations: An Australian case study, JGR-Atmoepheres
• 2025
  Australian fire weather variability using calibrated long-term reanalysis data, Discover Environment
• 2025
  Compound weather systems of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in global reanalysis, Environmental Research Letters
• 2025
  Compound wet/windy extremes in Australian observational and reanalysis datasets, Journal of Climate
• 2024
  Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 2024
  Discerning the influence of climate variability modes, regional weather features and time series persistence on streamflow using Bayesian networks and multiple linear regression, Int J. of Climtology
• 2024
  A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• 2024
  Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia, Geoscientific Model Development
• 2024
  The fire environment of five Australian cities, Natural Hazards
• 2024
  Occurrence and trends of historical tropical cyclone rainfall on near-coastal regions of Australia, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
• 2024
  Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia, NHESS
• 2024
  Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends, Nature Climate Change
• 2023
  Crown fire initiation of a thunderstorm, International Journal of Wildland Fire
• 2023
  Climate Change 2022-Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC
• 2023
  Biases in Estimating Long‐Term Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Events Due To Regionalized Sampling, Geophysical Research Letters
• 2023
  Performance and process-based evaluation of the BARPA-R Australasian regional climate model version 1, Geoscientific Model Development
• 2023
  Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
• 2023
  A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin climate change services in Australia, Climate Services
• 2023
  Analysis and characterisation of extreme wind gust hazards in New South Wales, Australia, Natural Hazards
• 2023
  An evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction in climate change impact studies, Journal of Hydrology
• 2023
  Long-term observational characteristics of different severe convective wind types around Australia, Weather and Forecasting
• 2023
  A bias correction method designed for weather and climate extremes, Bureau of Meteorology BRR087
• 2022
  Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming, Nature Climate Change
• 2022
  A review of early severe weather applications of high‐resolution regional reanalysis in Australia, Meteorological Applications
• 2022
  Types of Severe Convective Wind Events in Eastern Australia, Monthly Weather Review
• 2022
  Changes in Refractory Black Carbon (rBC) Deposition to Coastal Eastern Antarctica During the Past Century, Global Biogeochemical Cycles
• 2022
  Australia’s future extratropical cyclones, Journal of Climate
• 2022
  Using historical tropical cyclone climate datasets to examine wind speed recurrence for coastal Australia, Scientific Reports
• 2022
  A national hydrological projections service for Australia, Climate Services
• 2021
  Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments, JSHESS
• 2021
  Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia, Communications Earth & Environment
• 2021
  Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends, WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE
• 2021
  The 2019 Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts, BAMS
• 2021
  Wildfires under Climate Change: A Burning Issue-Frontiers 2022 Report: Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern - Chapter 2, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• 2021
  Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change, Nature Communications
• 2021
  Reconstructing seasonal fire danger in southeastern Australia using tree rings, International Journal of Wildland Fire
• 2021
  Extreme temperature, wind and bushfire weather projections using a standardised method, http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-055.pdf
• 2021
  Severe convective wind environments and future projected changes in Australia, JGR-A
• 2021
  The Relationship between High-Presentation Asthma Days in Melbourne, Australia, and Modeled Thunderstorm Environments, Weather and Forecasting
• 2021
  Fewer deep cyclones projected for the midlatitudes in a warming climate, but with more intense rainfall, ERL
• 2021
  Atmospheric modelling of grass pollen rupturing mechanisms for thunderstorm asthma prediction, PloS one
• 2021
  The differing role of weather systems in southern Australian rainfall between 1979–1996 and 1997–2015, Climate Dynamics
• 2021
  Changes in hourly extreme precipitation in Victoria, Australia, from the observational record, Weather and Climate Extremes
• 2021
  Intense east coast lows and associated rainfall in eastern Australia, JSHESS
• 2021
  A Bayesian approach to exploring the influence of climate variability modes on fire weather conditions and lightning-ignited wildfires, Climate Dynamics
• 2021
  Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective, Weather and Climate Extremes
• 2021
  The 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts, BAMS
• 2020
  Seamless climate change projections and seasonal predictions for bushfires in Australia, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
• 2020
  Quantifying hail and lightning risk factors using long‐term observations around Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2020
  Climatology of thunderstorms, convective rainfall and dry lightning environments in Australia, Climate Dynamics
• 2019
  Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models, Climate Dynamics
• 2019
  Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes, Climate Dynamics
• 2019
  Wildfire and weather radar: a review, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2019
  A global climatology of surface anticyclones, their variability, associated drivers and long-term trends, Climate Dynamics
• 2019
  A Physically Based Climatology of the Occurrence and Intensification of Australian East Coast Lows, Journal of Climate
• 2019
  Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires, Geophysical Research Letters
• 2019
  Historical extreme rainfall events in southeastern Australia, Weather and Climate Extremes
• 2019
  Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
• 2019
  On Determining the Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Record Fire Weather in Eastern Australia in February 2017, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 2019
  Long-term changes in southern Australian anticyclones and their impacts, Climate Dynamics
• 2019
  Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires, Scientific Reports
• 2019
  Weather radar insights into the turbulent dynamics of a wildfire‐triggered supercell thunderstorm, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2018
  Pyroconvection risk in Australia: Climatological changes in atmospheric stability and surface fire weather conditions, Geophysical Research Letters
• 2018
  Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia, Journal of applied meteorology and climatology
• 2018
  Mobile X-Pol radar: A new tool for investigating pyroconvection and associated wildfire meteorology, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 2018
  Exploratory analysis of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Warren Region, Western Australia, Journal of environmental management
• 2018
  Energetics and dynamics of subtropical australian east coast cyclones: two contrasting cases, Monthly Weather Review
• 2018
  Lightning prediction for Australia using multivariate analyses of large-scale atmospheric variables, Journal of applied meteorology and climatology
• 2017
  Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2017
  Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2017
  Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences, Scientific Reports
• 2017
  Classification of Australian Thunderstorms using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
• 2016
  Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world, Scientific Reports
• 2016
  Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2015
  Development of a global fire weather database for 1980-2012, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• 2015
  East Coast Cluster Report, Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions. Availabe here: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.4/cms_page_media/172/EAST_COAST_CLUSTER_REPORT.pdf, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
• 2015
  Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes., Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
• 2015
  Large-scale modelling of environments favourable for dry lightning occurrence, MODSIM: ISBN: 978-0-9872143-5-5
• 2015
  Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
• 2015
  Estimating trends and seasonality in Australian monthly lightning flash counts., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 2014
  Lightning climatology of Australia: temporal and spatial variability, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
• 2014
  Fewer large waves for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess, Nature Climate Change
• 2014
  Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers, Atmospheric Science Letters
• 2013
  Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia., Journal of Climate
• 2013
  Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
• 2013
  Large-scale diagnostics of extratropical cyclogenesis in eastern Australia, International Journal of Climatology
• 2012
  Characteristics of lightning-attributed fires in south-east Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire
• 2012
  An analysis of tropical cyclone occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere derived from a new satellite-era dataset, International Journal of Remote Sensing
• 2012
  Tropical cyclone climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate
• 2012
  Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires, J. of Applied Met. and Climate
• 2011
  Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events, CAWCR, Technical Report 37
• 2010
  Diagnosing indicators of large-scale forcing of east-coast cyclogenesis, IOP: Earth and Environmental Science
• 2010
  Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, Meteorological Applications
• 2009
  Atmospheric states associated with the ignition of lightning-attributed fires in southeast Australia, CAWCR, Technical Report 19
• 2009
  Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, CAWCR, Technical Report 10
• 2007
  Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part II: The response to sudden stratospheric warmings, Journal of Geophysical Research
• 2007
  Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part I: Mean wind and gravity wave climatologies, Journal of Geophysical Research
• 2004
  The large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere during the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming of 2002, Geophysical Research Letters
• 2003
  Further evidence of hemispheric differences in the MLT mean wind climatology: Simultaneous MF radar observations at Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W) and Davis (69°S, 78°E), Geophysical Research Letters
• 2003
  First year of Rayleigh Lidar measurements of middle atmosphere temperatures over Davis, Antarctica, Advances in Space Research
• 2001
  A comparison of mean winds and gravity wave activity in the northern and southern polar MLT, Geophysical Research Letters

Professional Memberships

• Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS)
• Member of the Royal Society of Victoria
• Member of the National Partnership for Climate Projections
• Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) group member
• Member of Climate Change Group of Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC)
• Melbourne Energy Institute - Fellow
• International Association of Wind Engineering – Member of Subtask 1
• Editor of journal Pyrogeography
• Member of one NHRA and three ARC grants currently underway
• Lead Author for IPCC AR7 (WGI)