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Adrian Raftery

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Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington

Biologists and demographers are actively debating whether there is a natural cap on the human life span, and how high that might be. eucyln/iStock via Getty Images Plus

August 10, 2021

The maximum human life span will likely increase this century, but not by more than a decade

Michael Pearce, University of Washington and Adrian Raftery, University of Washington

Jeanne Calment of France died in 1997 at the age of 122 years and 164 days. That record will be broken this century, statistical models suggest.

Reports of an American “baby bust” may be premature. But the drop in immigration puts the nation’s demographic future at risk. Ariel Skelly/DigitalVision via Getty

June 21, 2021

The dip in the US birthrate isn’t a crisis, but the fall in immigration may be

Adrian Raftery, University of Washington

Immigration has historically offset America’s low fertility rate, but the recent dramatic drop in immigration threatens that trend.

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Joined May 18, 2021