Timo Henckel

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  • Associate Professor, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
Data suggests a tentative economic improvement. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

Has the Australian economy turned the corner?

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

The balance of risks to Australia’s economy has barely shifted from last month, so that the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong, according to Reserve Bank Shadow…
“It is surprising that the RBA is hosing down talk of a housing bubble when experience of the early 2000s suggests that the RBA can be wise to jawbone down the housing market.” AAP/Lukas Koch

Interest rates: all eyes on the housing market

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

With uncertainty surrounding the recent federal election subsiding and positive economic news from abroad, several Shadow Board members worry that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary stance…
Rate cuts are slowly being felt by the economy, but are they working fast enough to stimulate growth? shutterstock

Interest rates: waiting for the election dust to settle

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

With the federal election only five days away and the cash rate at an historical low last month, the dominant approach for the Shadow Board members is to wait and see what the election will bring. The…
An election rate cut often benefits an incumbent government - but economists are taking a longer-term view. AAP

Economic outlook weakens ‑ but keep an eye on inflation

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

While federal election watchers will be avidly fixed on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to alter the cash rate decision today, economists are more interested in global factors and signs of weakness…
Chinese authorities have calmed market fears of a liquidity squeeze but will there be further disruptions? AAP

Interest rates: More of the same?

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Recent liquidity fears and resulting international market volatility has put the spotlight on global monetary policy and the role of central banks - including Australia. China’s attempts to re-balance…
Over the next twelve months, the Shadow Board members attach a 40% probability that the cash rate will need to increase, slightly more than the probability that the cash rate needs to fall. AAP

Boost growth, or counter a weaker dollar ‑ which way should the RBA go?

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Whither the Aussie dollar? Since the RBA dropped the cash rate to 2.75% last month the Australian dollar has fallen to below 96 US cents, a depreciation of more than 7% against the US dollar. With weaker…
With the rest of the world mired in economic crises, it seems Australia is the place for foreign central banks to park their assets. Krug6

The boom has made the dollar a dazzler, but Australia is hardly a safe haven

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Central banks everywhere - from Russia to the Czech Republic - are piling into Australian-dollar-denominated assets. This has limited the fall of the Australian dollar to around 3% from its peak even though…
While the US is finding its footing, China is looking to expand its global economic power by pushing for the renminbi importance in international transactions. Fotopedia/Philip Roeland

How the West’s money problems could hasten global power shift

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

The downgrading of US debt by Standard & Poor’s may sound the starting gun for an enduring rebalancing of global economic power. For decades, investors worldwide sought the safety of US government…
Joseph Stiglitz’s proposal for the US dollar overlooks political realities. AAP

Putting paid to Stiglitz’s US dollar speculation

Timo Henckel, Australian National University

Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz’s suggestion last month that the US dollar could be easily phased out as the de facto universal currency has some merit, but ultimately overlooks the political…

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