Rob Moss

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The flu comes on rapidly and symptoms get worse over the first few days. Shutterstock

We can’t predict how bad this year’s flu season will be but here’s what we know so far

Sheena G. Sullivan, WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza and Rob Moss, The University of Melbourne

The 2018 flu season was mild, while 2017 was a particularly bad year. It’s impossible to predict what the 2019 flu season has in store, but we’ve seen more cases so far this year than usual.
Advances in computing make it possible to model the spread of disease on an individual level, in a population of millions of people. Shutterstock/Maridav

Computing helps the study of infections on a global and local scale

Jodie McVernon, The University of Melbourne; Joshua Ross, University of Adelaide; Kathryn Glass, Australian National University; Lewis Mitchell, University of Adelaide; Nic Geard, The University of Melbourne, and Rob Moss, The University of Melbourne

Millions of people die or suffer from infectious diseases each year. Computer modelling can now help simulate the impact of any spreading disease.
Try to predict the outcome of a single coin toss and you’ll have only a 50-50 chance of being correct. Pauli Antero/Flickr

Why predicting a flu outbreak is like betting on football or flipping a coin

Rob Moss, The University of Melbourne; James McCaw, The University of Melbourne, and Jodie McVernon, The University of Melbourne

Predicting infectious disease outbreaks is a tricky task to begin with. And it’s made harder still by the fact that any individual outcome is subject to unpredictable – or stochastic – effects.

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