Several superspreading events had likely infected more than 200 people before New Zealand’s Delta outbreak was detected and the country went into a strict lockdown last week.
- Research scientist in mathematical modelling, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research
Border restrictions and quarantine have kept COVID-19 out of New Zealand, but new modelling shows contact tracing and quick isolation would control an outbreak, without the need for another lockdown.
Our new modelling shows the risk of an infectious person slipping through New Zealand’s border undetected is very low — likely to happen only once over the next 18 months.
Two new cases of COVID-19 have been announced in New Zealand, after 23 consecutive days with no new cases. But that doesn’t mean that the country’s elimination efforts have failed.
There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.
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