New Zealand will have to vaccinate 80-85% to reach population immunity. Until then, a blanket border re-opening, even if only for vaccinated people, would pose a high risk of new outbreaks.
- Research assistant, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
Although most border workers are now vaccinated, regular testing remains essential to guard against the risk of a major outbreak in the community.
Māori are historically at greater risk of severe illness and death during pandemics. New research shows they are at least 50% more likely to die from COVID-19 than other New Zealanders.
As Auckland prepares to ease restrictions from Monday, active COVID-19 cases almost certainly remain in the community. Masks will become compulsory on public transport to avoid new outbreaks.
Border restrictions and quarantine have kept COVID-19 out of New Zealand, but new modelling shows contact tracing and quick isolation would control an outbreak, without the need for another lockdown.
Our new modelling shows the risk of an infectious person slipping through New Zealand’s border undetected is very low — likely to happen only once over the next 18 months.
Two new cases of COVID-19 have been announced in New Zealand, after 23 consecutive days with no new cases. But that doesn’t mean that the country’s elimination efforts have failed.
There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.
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