Comparisons of national polls over an eight-month period show support falling only among Coalition voters. This may not be fatal to the referendum’s chances, but it is serious.
- Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
The census’s much-discussed “average Australian” has shaky foundations
There’s a good reason why first-term governments are re-elected – but Labor’s victory last month may not fit the mould.
There have been few if any elections when, in the last week, it has been the ‘uncommitted’ voters who have turned things around.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution, or just approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice?
Australians may support one, both, or neither.
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