Monica Duffy Toft

  • Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Plumes of smoke and fire rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 14, 2026. AP Photo/Altaf Qadri

Overconfidence is how wars are lost − lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine for the war in Iran were ignored

The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is the latest entry in an old and lethal tradition in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe and what war delivers.
Apoiadores do presidente venezuelano Nicolás Maduro se reúnem durante uma manifestação em Caracas, em 4 de janeiro de 2026. Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images

Os EUA podem “governar” a Venezuela? A força militar pode derrubar um ditador, mas não pode criar autoridade política ou legitimidade

Se Washington governar pela força na Venezuela, repetirá os fracassos do Afeganistão, Iraque e Líbia: o poder pode derrubar regimes, mas não pode criar autoridade política ou legitimidade.
Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro gather during a demonstration in Caracas on Jan, 4, 2026. Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images

Can the US ‘run’ Venezuela? Military force can topple a dictator, but it cannot create political authority or legitimacy

If Washington governs by force in Venezuela, it will repeat the failures of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya: Power can topple regimes, but it cannot create political authority or legitimacy.
It’s been a long time since the U.S. tried to forcibly plant its flag on foreign territory. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Trump’s threats on Greenland, Gaza, Ukraine and Panama revive old‑school US imperialism of dominating other nations by force, after decades of nuclear deterrence

The US has largely managed its empire in a more ‘gentlemanly manner’ than many historical empires, says a US foreign policy expert. Trump is turning back the clock.
The golden Dome of the Rock Islamic shrine, a holy site for Muslims, stands close to the Western Wall, Judaism’s holiest site, in an aerial view of Jerusalem’s Old City. David Silverman/Getty Images

Israelis and Palestinians warring over a homeland is far from unique

Conflicts over the Alsace-Lorraine region and Northern Ireland offer examples of how territory is often at the center of a conflict − and what is necessary to pave the path to peace.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went to the White House during a surprise visit to the U.S. in December 2022. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

US military spending in Ukraine reached nearly $50 billion in 2022 – but no amount of money alone is enough to end the war

The US is giving record-high amounts of money to Ukraine, signaling it is invested in this war for the long run – a political science scholar explains 3 important things to know.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, stands near a damaged residential building in Irpin, Ukraine, on Sept. 8, 2022. Genya Savilov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The US isn’t at war with Russia, technically – but its support for Ukraine offers a classic case of a proxy war

Giving Ukraine large amounts of money while not actually declaring war on Russia has various benefits for the US and other countries. Chiefly, it could protect US soldiers and civilians.
A soldier participates in a training during a tactical leader’s exercise at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. REUTERS/Bryan Woolston

America now solves problems with troops, not diplomats

Data show that the US intervenes more in other countries’ affairs than it did in the past. It also currently hires fewer career professionals for ambassadorial or foreign affairs positions.
What does it look like when a country’s identity falls apart? Interior Design/shutterstock.com

Identicide: How demographic shifts can rip a country apart

When a country becomes more diverse, new demographic tensions may emerge between people who feel that they own their country’s identity – and people who feel they’ve been left out.
Self-proclaimed ‘white nationalists,’ white supremacists and ‘alt-right’ activists hold what they called a ‘Freedom of Speech’ rally in Washington, June 25, 2017. REUTERS/Jim Bourg

White right? How demographics is changing US politics

In the US, non-whites have higher birth rates and make up the bulk of new immigrants. As white people lose their demographic majority, some will resist the accompanying political changes.
Members of the U.S. Army Special Forces on Aug. 30, 2002 in Afghanistan. AP Photo/Wally Santana

Fewer diplomats, more armed force defines US leadership today

The author of ‘Securing the Peace,’ explains what’s wrong with having US ambassadors operating in one-third of the world’s capitals while special operations forces are active in three-fourths.

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