Matthew Lebo

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Mark Carney arrives to Rideau Hall before being sworn in as prime minister in Ottawa on March 14, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

America’s democratic decline has critical lessons for Canadian voters

Matthew Lebo, Western University

Democracy is fragile. As a federal election approaches in Canada, it’s important to know the warning signs of extremism and anti-democratic practices that are now routine in the U.S.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak talks to journalists on his plane as he travels from Northern Ireland to Birmingham in May 2024 during a day of campaigning for the British election on July 4. (HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool photo via AP)

Our reliable election forecast model predicts British Conservatives will lose big

Matthew Lebo, Western University

The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
U.S. President Joe Biden mingles with diners at Hannibal’s Kitchen in Charleston, S.C., in January 2024. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

Don’t count Biden out: January polls are historically unreliable

Matthew Lebo, Western University

Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.
The U.S. Supreme Court is seen behind security fencing on June 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Can Americans be shielded from the U.S. Supreme Court?

Matthew Lebo, Western University and Ellen Key, Appalachian State University

The combination of crumbling democratic norms in the U.S. Supreme Court appointments process and an ideological court out of step with mainstream America raises questions of how it could be reformed.

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