The bookies have got it right in all but two elections since 1868.
- Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
A look at the challenges of producing and consuming election polls.
A close look at 15 years of the popular dance competition shows that people dancing last have a distinct advantage.
The Democrats are currently about 57% to 43% favourites over the Republicans to win the presidency – if you trust the markets.
On December 30, 1967 the UK’s highest court drew a line in the sand over the rise of casinos. Here’s what happened next.
Hitting a moving target is hard, and young people don’t always do what’s expected.
If the 2017 polls are to get the election right, they have to nail one variable in particular: turnout among the young.
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
With two months to go, the numbers seem to favour Hillary Clinton more heavily than ever. But it pays to look more closely.
The Republican establishment’s worst nightmare has become reality. What now?
Five more states will soon have their say in the Clinton-Sanders battle. But is it already over?
The mob is a surprisingly clever thing.
Why two-thirds of the adult population in the UK bet on this annual horse race.
Could the Republicans’ biggest nightmare finally be about to come true?
Donald Trump could be the next president of the United States. Wanna bet?
Instead of fixating on polling and pundits, you might as well go straight to the bookies.
The favourite in the betting won has almost every single US presidential election since 1868 and more recently the Academy Awards. But how well can the market predict the Nobel Prize winners?
The collective wisdom of expert crowds could provide the answer to the Malaysia Airlines mystery.
Lawyers and law students betting on recent decisions have been spot on predicting outcomes. It isn’t all that hard, when you think about it.
When considering US elections it pays to “follow the money” – and not just the campaign donations. Head to the bookies, not the polls, to see who’s really in with a shout.
‘Shy Tories’ doesn’t cut it. There is another anomaly in the election poll data which offers a more useful angle on what went wrong.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
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