Justin Lessler – The Conversation

The sum is greater than the parts when researchers build an ensemble from multiple coordinated but independent models. Matteo Chinazzi

November 20, 2023

Pooling multiple models during COVID‑19 pandemic provided more reliable projections about an uncertain future

Emily Howerton, Penn State; Cecile Viboud, National Institutes of Health, and Justin Lessler, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Policymakers rely on models during uncertain times to figure out how their choices could affect the future. Over the pandemic, an ensemble of many COVID-19 models outperformed any one alone.

Pit latrine in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Access to clean water and sanitation are key to preventing cholera epidemics. D. Schafer, SuSanA/Flickr

May 15, 2017

How El Niño forecasts can help prevent cholera deaths in Africa

Justin Lessler, Johns Hopkins University; Andrew Azman, Johns Hopkins University; Benjamin Zaitchik, Johns Hopkins University, and Sean Moore, Johns Hopkins University

Cholera kills thousands every year but is treatable if it is caught early. Understanding how El Niño shifts cholera risks in Africa can help countries prepare for outbreaks and save lives.

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