James Horncastle

Streets are flooded in Kherson, Ukraine, after the Kakhovka dam was destroyed. While the war in Ukraine is largely conventional, the use of paramilitary forces by both sides could escalate hostilities in the months to come. (AP Photo/Libkos)

Paramilitaries in the Russia‑Ukraine war could escalate and expand the conflict

Both Russia and Ukraine are using paramilitary forces in their enduring conflict. But employing such forces poses serious risks for both countries.
A Ukrainian soldier fires a grenade launcher on the frontline in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. (AP Photo/Libkos)

Bakhmut is increasingly a quagmire that works to Russia’s advantage

Bakhmut initially appeared to be a Ukrainian strategic victory as it depleted Russian armed forces. But that looming victory risks becoming a major defeat. Here’s how Russia has outplayed Ukraine.
Une femme enveloppée d'un drapeau ukrainien crie dans un mégaphone lors d'une manifestation devant la Cour pénale internationale à La Haye, aux Pays-Bas, en mars 2022. (AP Photo/Phil Nijhuis)

L’inculpation de Poutine par la Cour pénale internationale est symbolique. Mais les symboles ont aussi leur importance

Même s’il est peu probable que Poutine soit un jour jugé par un tribunal, le mandat d’arrêt de la CPI a une réelle valeur. Les actions symboliques peuvent avoir un effet profond sur les États.
A woman wrapped in the Ukrainian flag shouts through a megaphone during a demonstration in front of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, in March 2022. (AP Photo/Phil Nijhuis)

Why the International Criminal Court’s indictment of Putin has symbolic importance

The International Criminal Court’s charges against Vladimir Putin are likely to have a minimal impact on him, but it does signal that wartime atrocities have consequences — and the world is watching.
Ukrainian soldiers in a trench under Russian shelling on the frontline close to Ukraine’s Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, on March 5, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos)

The Battle of Bakhmut exposes Russia’s fault lines

The Battle of Bakhmut embodies Russia’s ill-planned war in Ukraine. Even if it succeeds in taking the city, the divisions it’s created within its armed forces will erode Russia’s ultimate aims.
Residents watch a burning infrastructure project hit during a massive Russian drone night strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, in December 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Russia is using drones to target Ukrainian electricity and erode morale

With electricity in Ukraine constantly disrupted by Russian attacks, the Ukrainian population faces a difficult choice — to remain in the country under such conditions, or flee abroad.
Members of the Levica party march on a government building during a protest in Skopje, North Macedonia, on July 6, 2022. Thousands of people marched for several nights after French President Emmanuel Macron announced a proposal to enable the country’s admission into the EU that many North Macedonians find controversial. (AP Photo/Boris Grdanoski)

Why North Macedonia is the European Union’s latest self‑inflicted wound

The EU is creating resentment in North Macedonia over its feud with Bulgaria. In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war, it will only serve to benefit Russia in its efforts to undermine the EU.
Bosnian Serbs march carrying a giant Serbian flag in Sarajevo, Bosnia, on Jan. 9, 2022. The country’s Serbs celebrated an outlawed holiday with a provocative parade showcasing armored vehicles, police helicopters and law enforcement officers with rifles. (AP Photo)

Bosnia‑Herzegovina could be the next site of Russian‑fuelled conflict

Russia’s future influence on global affairs may not be limited to Ukraine — it may run through Bosnia-Herzegovina. To understand why, we need to think about how past conflicts shape today’s politics.
A girl from Ukraine looks up at her mother as they wait to cross the border to Siret, Romania at the Romanian-Ukrainian border on Feb. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuels a refugee crisis that could help Putin win the war

Europe’s need to support Ukrainian refugees could inhibit its ability to respond in Ukraine, allowing Vladimir Putin to consolidate his control of the Russian-speaking territories of Ukraine.

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