People ride motorcycles past a large billboard in central Tehran on June 8, 2026. Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

Trump’s US‑Iran ceasefire deal is a costly return to prewar conditions – and resolving nuclear questions will run into the ‘indivisibility problem’

Iran has emerged with its uranium enrichment knowledge intact, its stockpile buried and fresh reason to believe that only a nuclear weapon would have deterred the US-Israel attack.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrive for a press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris on April 17, 2026. Jeanne Accorsini/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Why the Iran war is breaking the US‑European strategic alliance

European leaders are learning they cannot rely on Washington, and that the US will act against their interests and at their economic expense.
Fuzileiros navais dos EUA cruzam a fronteira do Kuwait para invadir o Iraque em 2003: mais de 20 anos depois, sucesso militar da derrubada do regime de Saddam Hussein deixou para trás um Estado autoritário com fortes laços com o Irã. AP Photo/Laurent Rebours

Resultado da guerra no Iraque foi um desastre para os EUA, e guerra contra o Irã pode seguir o mesmo caminho

Mais de 20 anos após o sucesso militar dos EUA no Iraque, o resultado dos esforços americanos para mudar o regime não foi o esperado, e ditadores com laços estreitos com o Irã governam o país.
Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of Israel’s waves of strikes against Iran, on June 15, 2025. Photo by Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Iran‑Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

Strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran may increase Tehran’s belief that attaining nuclear weapons is key to establishing a deterrence to regime change.
A member of the Indian Border Security Force stands guard near the India-Pakistan border. Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images

India‑Pakistan ceasefire shouldn’t disguise fact that norms have changed in South Asia, making future de‑escalation much harder

Tensions in South Asia have been taken down a notch with news of a ceasefire – but the conditions for future escalations remain, and mechanisms for peace appear to have been diminished.

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