The pre-Christmas period puts New Zealanders at high risk of exposure to COVID. Even at small gatherings of ten people, the probability someone has the virus has increased from 2-3% to about 15%.
- Project Lead - COVID Modeling Aotearoa; Senior Lecturer - Department of Physics, University of Auckland; Principal Investigator - Te Pūnaha Matatini, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
Vaccine passes have outlived their usefulness, at least for now. But as New Zealand’s Omicron wave begins to subside, other public health measures remain vitally important.
With access to testing limited and without other ways of measuring likely infection rates, New Zealand’s confirmed COVID cases are likely to be just a fraction of the total.
Vaccination and testing requirements will limit the number of infected people leaving Auckland, but cases are likely to spread across the country as people travel in the lead-up to the holiday season.
A model of a “virtual” Aotearoa shows even a few new connections will lead to a complex web of transmission which could fuel the spread of the Delta outbreak.
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