How risky is it to swim? Christine Cabalo/Wikimedia March 29, 2017 Worried about shark attacks or terrorism? Here’s how to think about the real risk of rare events Ben Newell, UNSW ; Chris Donkin, UNSW , and Dan Navarro, UNSW We naturally overestimate the risk of rare events, like shark attacks or terrorism. But there are things you can do to think more rationally about the real risk.