Clayton Besaw – The Conversation

The U.S. was one of 33 countries to experience election-related violence in 2020 – the worst year for peaceful elections ever. Brent Stirton/Getty Images

February 18, 2021

Election violence spiked worldwide in 2020 – will this year be better?

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida

Elections are getting less safe in democracies and nondemocracies alike. Last year was the bloodiest year for elections in decades, with 54% of all national votes marred by some kind of violence.

Pemberontakkan di gedung Capitol AS, 6 Januari 2021.

January 12, 2021

Kudeta? Bukan, pengepungan Capitol AS adalah kekerasan pemilu dalam demokrasi yang rapuh

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Matthew Frank, University of Denver

Peristiwa di Capitol - sebuah pemberontakan dengan kekerasan - secara teknis tidak bisa disebutkan sebagai kudeta.

Los aledaños del Capitolio de los Estados Unidos el 6 d enero de 2021. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

January 7, 2021

¿Es el asalto al Capitolio un golpe de Estado?

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Matthew Frank, University of Denver

Los partidarios de Trump irrumpieron en el Capitolio de los EE.UU. el 6 de enero, interrumpiendo la certificación de Joe Biden como presidente electo. Los autores, expertos en golpes de estado, explican que esta insurrección violenta no fue técnicamente un golpe.

Devant le Capitole à Washington, le 6 janvier 2021. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

January 7, 2021

L’assaut du Capitole, manifestation frappante de la fragilité de la démocratie américaine

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Matthew Frank, University of Denver

Techniquement, la prise du Capitole par des partisans de Donald Trump ce 6 janvier n’a pas été un coup d’État. L’événement n’en révèle pas moins la grande fragilité de la démocratie américaine.

Insurrection at the US Capitol, Jan. 6, 2021. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

January 10, 2021

Was it a coup? No, but siege on US Capitol was the election violence of a fragile democracy

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Matthew Frank, University of Denver

Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol on Jan. 6, disrupting Congress’s certification of Joe Biden as president-elect. Coup experts explain this violent insurrection wasn’t technically a coup.

The scene in Mali’s capital on Aug. 18, 2020, after Malian president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and his prime minister were overthrown by the military. John Kalapo/Getty Images

September 8, 2020

Mali celebrates after president’s ouster – but there are few ‘good coups’

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida

A coup may be a quick fix for a problem leader, but history shows that coups beget more coups.

Guinea-Bissau’s presidential candidate Umaro Sissoco Embalo of MADEM G15 party during a campaign rally leading to his December 29 victory. EPA-EFE/Andre Kosters

February 16, 2020

Guinea Bissau election inspires optimism – but there are still big risks

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Jonathan Powell, University of Central Florida

Coup risk in Guinea-Bissau is likely to decline, but changing leadership presents its own risks.

Guinean immigrants living and working in Portugal participate in a demonstration against the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau back in 2012. EPA/Tiago Petinga

November 3, 2019

Bissau‑Guineans hold their breath – again – as uncertainty deepens

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Jonathan Powell, University of Central Florida

The political crisis and any potential instability may once again force the military’s hand

A military procession accompanies the coffin of the lateTunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi during his funeral in Tunis. Amel Pain/EPA-EFE

August 15, 2019

Essebsi is gone: Tunisia’s young democracy faces its toughest test

Jonathan Powell, University of Central Florida and Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida

In death, President Mohamed Beji Caid Essebsi has left behind an unfinished revolution which now needs a new leader.

Outgoing Bissau-Guinean President Jose Mario Vaz casts his ballot in Bissau during the country’s March legislative elections. Paulo Cunha/EPA-EFE

July 14, 2019

Rivalries ahead of Guinea‑Bissau’s election raise questions about stability

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida; Jonathan Powell, University of Central Florida, and Devyn Escalanti, University of Central Florida

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Bissau-Guinean politics going forward.

Mauro still has enough money to buy the loyalty of Venezuela’s military — but his government is going bankrupt, so that will change. Reuters/Handout

January 31, 2019

Odds of military coup in Venezuela rise every day Maduro stays in office

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida

A coup seems so imminent in Venezuela that people are debating whether Maduro’s overthrow would be good or bad for Venezuelan democracy. But history suggests a coup may be less likely than it seems.

A coup attempt failed in Gabon, following President Ali Bongo’s extended illness and absence. EPA/Stringer

January 15, 2019

The coup in Gabon surprised everyone. Why forecasts, and the plot, failed

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Jonathan Powell, University of Central Florida

Gabon is a wealthy and stable country and this might explain why the January 7 coup attempt failed.

Turkish people in Ankara attempting to stop a military coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on July 16, 2016. AP Photo

December 13, 2018

No coups occurred in 2018. Will next year be so stable?

Clayton Besaw, University of Central Florida and Matthew Frank, University of Denver

2018 is on track to become only the second coup-free year in a century. Coup risk is way down worldwide, thanks to growing political stability in Latin America. Africa has the highest risk of coup.

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